Global Ag News for Dec 11.24

TOP HEADLINES

Russian wheat Egypt bought in September finally on way

A first shipment of 66,000 metric tons of Russian wheat out of the 430,000 that Egypt bought in September left the port of Novorossiisk on Tuesday after delays, an Egyptian source with direct knowledge of the matter said, confirming LSEG shipping data reported earlier by Reuters.

Egypt’s Ministry of Supply said in September that its General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) had contracted 430,000 tons of Russian wheat for October shipment.

Details of the supplier and payment terms were not disclosed. The shipments were delayed, first to November and then to December.

Russia made no official comment on the deal, but its Grain Exporters and Producers Union (Rusgrain), which reflects the government’s line on export policy, said the deal had likely involved an unknown middleman.

Russia has since clamped down on foreign intermediaries in its international wheat trade, introducing informal restrictions, to help boost prices for its wheat in both international tenders and direct purchases.

The departure of bulk carrier Wadi Almolouk follows Egypt’s decision to appoint Mostakbal Misr for Sustainable Development as the state’s new designated importer of strategic commodities, replacing GASC. Mostakbal Misr serves as the development arm of the Egyptian Armed Forces.

Rusgrain confirmed the Agriculture Ministry received an official letter about the decision and said it would work with Mostakbal Misr. Russia’s agricultural watchdog confirmed it had issued all the necessary phytosanitary certificates for the wheat shipment.

The Egyptian-flagged Wadi Almolouk is due to reach Egypt’s port of El Dekheila before the end of the year.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal up $0.30; Soyoil down 0.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 in SRW, up 13 1/4 in HRW, up 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 9 3/4; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal up $5.20; Soyoil down 0.55.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 1/4 in SRW, up 26 1/4 in HRW, up 15 in HRS; Corn is up 16 3/4; Soybeans up 2 1/2; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil up 0.60.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.7% in SRW, down 14.4% in HRW, down 19.5% in HRS; Corn is down 6.3%; Soybeans down 23.3%; Soymeal down 25.2%; Soyoil down 11.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 14 yuan; Soymeal down 19; Soyoil up 50; Palm oil down 186; Corn up 13 — Malaysian Palm is down 95.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 95 ringgit (-1.92%) at 4856.

There were changes in registrations (-44 Soybeans, 300 Soymeal). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 3 Corn; 312 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 1,591 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 10 were: SRW Wheat up 4,205 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,168, Corn up 26,476, Soybeans down 10,460, Soymeal up 2,871, Soyoil down 2,225.

Brazil: Rain went isolated over central Brazil this weekend, but a front moving up from Argentina brought heavier rain to the south that will restart showers again in central Brazil over the next couple of days. Another system will move through southern areas Friday and Saturday with more rain. Very few areas are showing signs of having weather issues either being too wet or too dry. Overall conditions are still favorable for flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.

Argentina: A front brought limited showers to Argentina last week, but did hit some important spots. A system that moves through mid-late week will favor the west and north with rainfall, but some of the important areas will stay dry, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Mild temperatures will keep water demand down through next week, but the country needs more rain. While issues are only spotty currently, we could see more trouble spots expanding with the pattern continuing to favor scattered or spotty showers instead of widespread heavy rain.

Northern Plains: A burst of colder air will move through the Dakotas Tuesday night through Thursday, but then quickly be replaced by warm air on Friday that persists into next week. Light snow is likely to be around the region through the changing temperatures. Any storm systems that produce good precipitation amounts are forecast to avoid the region over the next 10 days, but with so many in the pipeline, that could change. Drought areas scattered throughout much of the region would enjoy a change in the forecast.

Central/Southern Plains: Cold air briefly coming through the region on Monday produced some snow in the High Plains, but other areas are likely to remain dry. Another system could start to produce showers across the southeast on Friday but amounts do not look heavy. Some storm systems next week could bring in some better precipitation but they are not currently forecast to do so.

Midwest: A burst of cold air will get pushed through the region briefly Wednesday and Thursday. That could be enough to produce some streaks of light snow and open up the lake-effect snow machine for a couple of days again. But warmer air will spread back into the region over the weekend and so will a chance for rain showers. A couple of systems next week may bring a mix of rain and snow that could help with the ongoing drought situation.

Europe: A massive low-pressure system is being torn apart across the south, though some showers may linger throughout the week. Organized rainfall may return to portions of the continent this weekend and several systems look to continue the rainfall through most of the continent through the end of the year. Areas in the northwest where wheat is still active have found conditions that are too wet. Otherwise, the continued rainfall should help to boost soil moisture for areas that have been too dry. Parts of Spain and the northeast could use more rain, though.

Black Sea: A system in southern Europe will see part of that split and move through the region with scattered showers over the next couple of days. Though most of the region has seen winter wheat go dormant, the coming showers should help to build soil moisture. With how dry the region has been since February, a significant boost in soil moisture is needed for wheat when it breaks dormancy this coming spring.

Australia: Scattered showers moved through the country over the weekend, especially in the east where conditions have been much improved for cotton and sorghum development. The remaining wheat and canola harvest has needed to dodge the rain and some spots may have seen too much rain that has caused delays and some small quality concerns. The country’s agricultural areas will be quieter this week, allowing wet areas to drain a bit.

 

The player sheet for Dec. 10 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 24,000 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, and buyers of 2,500 soymeal.

TENDERS

• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 112,889 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Dec. 12.
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 120,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice which closed on Tuesday was assessed at $456.67 a metric ton CIF liner out.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 7, 2025, and arrive in Japan by March 6, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Dec. 18.
• NON-GMO SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has issued new international tenders to purchase around 50,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs),
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Dec. 6 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen unchanged from the previous week at 1.073m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.227m bbl vs 23.003m a week ago

 

EU 2024/25 soybean imports up 11% by Dec 8, rapeseed up 3%

European Union soybean imports in the 2024/25 season that started in July had reached 5.67 million metric tons by Dec. 8, up from 5.11 million tons at the same stage last year, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports for the same period rose to 2.59 million tons, against 2.51 million a year earlier, while soymeal imports reached 8.74 million tons, up from 6.67 million a year earlier.

EU palm oil imports totalled 1.37 million tons, down from 1.63 million tons a year earlier.

 

Ukraine’s Corn Output Drops 8.5% Y/y as Harvest Almost Complete

Ukraine’s corn harvest totaled 24.6m tons as of Dec. 5, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• Corn was collected from 3.8m hectares, or 96% of the planted area
• Some 26.9m tons were harvested by Dec. 8 last year
• Total grains harvest declined to 54.3m tons, from 57.1m tons a year earlier
• Soybeans were harvested from 99% of planted areas, with production rising roughly 25% y/y to 6m tons
• Sunflowers were harvested from 97% of areas, with output down 14% y/y to 10.2m tons
• Sugar beet harvest is 99% complete, with the crop rising about 5% to 12.2m tons

 

MGEX Spring Wheat Stocks Down 26% From Year Ago: Dec. 8

Stocks of hard spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses fell y/y to 13.959m bushels in the week ending Dec. 8, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s weekly report.

• Compared to the previous week, stockpiles fell by 590k bu
• Stockpiles in Duluth/Superior warehouses down 414k bu from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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