Global Ag News for Aug 9.24

TOP HEADLINES

Grains loading delays hit 36 ships in Argentina due to strike, ports chamber says

The number of ships facing grains loading delays in Argentina rose to 36 on Thursday, the CAPyM ports chamber told Reuters, due to an oilseed workers strike launched earlier this week that has halted operations at the country’s major agricultural hubs.

The strike was launched early on Tuesday by a pair of Argentine oilseed industry unions that are demanding companies approve worker wage hikes above the country’s inflation rate.

Argentina is a major exporter of processed soybeans, with proceeds from sales providing much-needed hard currency for central bank coffers.

While the country’s inflation rate has slowed since President Javier Milei took office in December, the accumulated rate of rising consumer prices during the first half of this year nevertheless stood at 79%, according to official data.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 8 1/2 in HRW, up 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $3.10; Soyoil up 0.05.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5 3/4; Soybeans down 14; Soymeal down $5.40; Soyoil up 0.10.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 18 1/2 in SRW, up 11 in HRW, up 13 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 9 1/4; Soymeal up $3.50; Soyoil down 1.41.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.1% in SRW, down 12.8% in HRW, down 17.8% in HRS; Corn is down 19.4%; Soybeans down 21.9%; Soymeal down 13.1%; Soyoil down 11.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 6 yuan; Soymeal down 12; Soyoil up 22; Palm oil up 72; Corn up 23 — Malaysian Palm is up 42.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 42 ringgit (+1.13%) at 3746.

 

There were changes in registrations (-37 Soyoil). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 968 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 8 were: SRW Wheat down 8,065 contracts, HRW Wheat down 5,181, Corn down 7,564, Soybeans up 3,107, Soymeal down 1,743, Soyoil down 449.

 

August Deliveries

• Soybeans
  • 8/7: 0
  • Total:  123
• Soybean Oil
  • 8/7: 71
  • Total: 1,422
• Soybean Meal
  • Total: 0

 

Northern Plains: After a couple of dry days, more showers are possible this weekend and much of next week as a couple of little systems pass through, though models disagree on the coverage and timing. The rainfall is likely too late for the wheat crop, but could be beneficial for corn and soybeans if it is not too heavy and does not cause flooding. Temperatures will continue to be cool through the weekend, gradually rising next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A front that moved into the region will stall out around the Kansas-Oklahoma area and be a focal point for precipitation going into next week before it lifts northward. A disturbance or two may bring showers to Nebraska next week as well. Any rainfall would certainly be helpful for filling corn and soybeans. Temperatures north of the front are very comfortable and a nice break from earlier heat while it stays hot to the south. Temperatures will be on a gradual increase next week as the front lifts northward.

Midwest: Mild air is being reinforced by another front moving through the region Thursday. Models do not produce much precipitation with the front as it moves through, keeping a lot of the region drier and cool through the weekend. Dryness would not be favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but the reduction in temperatures may offset some of the stress. The forecast for next week is questionable as some small disturbances may move through with periods of showers along the front stalled across the south, but models disagree with timing, coverage, and intensity of the rainfall. Temperatures should gradually rise throughout the week, but showers moving through may disrupt that if they occur.

Canadian Prairies: A system continues to bring showers to Manitoba Thursday but has left a cold pocket of air in the region that will last the next several days. A reduction in winds and cloud cover could lead to very patchy frosts in some areas over the next couple of mornings, it got very close in central Saskatchewan Thursday morning. Temperatures will gradually rise next week. Showers may return by the middle of next week. The recent cooler and wetter conditions would be favorable but are too late for much of the wheat and canola crops in the region that are on their way to maturity after sustaining heat and dryness in July.

Europe: A front has been going through Europe the last couple of days and another looks to go through Friday and Saturday with some more showers. Northern areas have seen the bulk of the rain this week, which continues with these two fronts as well. Poland will benefit but Germany is still too wet in a lot of areas for harvesting the remaining wheat or developing corn and other spring grains. Temperatures will rise this weekend across most of the continent, being more stressful for areas that haven’t had much rain lately across the south. Northern areas appear to be active again next week.

Black Sea: A disturbance coming from Europe will produce a few showers for the next couple of days and a front coming through this weekend may produce a few more, but the widespread heavy rain that the region needs continues to be elusive. Above-normal temperatures have been increasing the drought stress in the region, though temperatures will fall behind the front for a couple of days next week.

 

The player sheet for Aug. 8 had funds: sellers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC purchased around 600,000 to 700,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought a total of 83,445 metric tons of food-quality wheat from Australia, Canada and the United States in a regular tender.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, announced a massive tender for 3.8 million metric tons of wheat to cover imports between October 2024 and April 2025. The deadline for offers is Aug 12.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 1.31M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 735K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Aug. 1.

• Soybean sales rose to 1,311k tons vs 1,009k in the previous week
• Corn sales fell to 735k tons vs 879k in the previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 386k tons vs 287k in the previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 1, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 534k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 241k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Taiwan with 106k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 1, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 14.8k tons of the 34.8k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Argentine Corn Production Estimate Aug. 8: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• Corn production estimate maintained at 46.5m tons
• Corn harvesting advanced to 96.3% complete

 

Argentina Soy-Crush Workers Extend Strike Over Pay to Third Day

• Shipments delayed in world’s biggest soy meal, oil exporter
• Unions say wage offer is insufficient amid inflation at 270%

Workers at oilseed-processing plants in Argentina are extending their strike for a third consecutive day as wage talks with trading houses hit an impasse, crippling activity in the world’s biggest exporter of soy meal and soy oil.

Representatives of the two main unions, SOEA and the Federation of Oilseed Industry Workers, confirmed the continuation of the strike to Bloomberg News. Unions are unhappy with wage increases offered by trading houses, saying they aren’t enough to prevent an erosion of purchasing power amid Argentina’s chronic inflation running at some 270% a year.

The strike is impacting a slew of ports, according to shipping agency Nabsa, including those of Argentina’s biggest crushers such as Viterra Inc., Cargill Inc. and Louis Dreyfus Co.

Gustavo Idigoras, head of crusher association Ciara that’s leading negotiations with workers, said the delay to shipments is costing Argentina some $50 million a day as well as staining the country’s reputation as a reliable global supplier.

With the talks in deadlock, no immediate end to the strike is in sight. “As things are going right now, we’ll decide on a day-to-day basis,” said Martin Morales, an official for SOEA.

SOEA represents workers in San Lorenzo, a Parana River port district accounting for about 70% of Argentine soy shipments. The oilseed industry federation groups workers at plants elsewhere on the Parana and on the Atlantic coast.

 

Ukraine has harvested 20.9 mln T wheat from 97% of area, says ministry

Ukraine has harvested 20.94 million metric tons of wheat from 4.7 million hectares, or 97% of the sown area, the agriculture ministry said on Friday without giving an average yield for the harvest.

The ministry also said that a total of 27.3 million tons of various grains and 3.3 million tons of oilseeds were threshed as of Aug. 9.

The ministry said the harvested volume also included 5.2 million tons of barley, 3.3 million tons of rapeseed and 457,700 tons of peas.

Last month the ministry raised its forecast for the 2024 grain harvest to 56 million tons from 52.4 million tons. Together with oilseeds, the crop could total 77 million tons, it said.

 

Russia’s IKAR ups grain harvest, export forecasts for 2024

Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR said on Friday it had raised its 2024 Russian grain export forecast by 2.2% to 56.2 million metric tons from 55 million.

It also raised its grain crop estimate to 129.5 million metric tons from 128 million. Russia’s official forecast puts this year’s harvest at around 132 million tons.

Extreme weather events such as early spring frosts, floods, and summer heat have affected this year’s harvest outlook in some key producing areas of Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter.

The weather has accelerated the harvesting campaign in many regions with 40% of the grain and legume fields already harvested and almost 64 million tons collected, according to last week’s data.

 

Ikar Raises 2024 Russia Wheat Crop Outlook to 83.8M Tons

The outlook was increased from a prior forecast of 83.2m tons, IKAR General Director Dmitry Rylko said by email.

Wheat export potential boosted to 44.5m tons from 44m tons

• Barley outlook increased to 17.2m tons from 16.9m tons
• Corn to 14.3m tons from 14m tons
• Total grain raised to 129.5m tons from 128m tons

 

Weather-Roiling La Niña Delayed as Pacific Cools Slowly, US Says

The chances for a weather-roiling La Niña to arrive by October have dropped as cooling across the equatorial Pacific has been slower than expected, according to the US Climate Prediction Center.

• Odds that La Niña, which can signal drought in Argentina and California, will arrive by October have dropped to 49% from 70% a month ago
  • Cooler water deep in the ocean and easterly winds across the Pacific still signal the weather pattern may arrive later in the year
  • There is a 74% chance La Nina will emerge in the November to January timeframe, down from 79% a month ago
• NOTE: Research has shown even neutral conditions can cut down on wind shear across the Caribbean, meaning more Atlantic hurricanes may form before the storm season ends there on Nov. 30

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 622k tons in the week ending Aug. 3 from 659k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 13% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 11.6% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $14.00 per short ton, an increase of $1.48 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Aug. 6: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Aug. 6, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn and soybean crops experiencing moderate to intense drought remained at 5%
• Drought affecting durum wheat rose by 3 percentage points in the week, after rising by 12 points in the previous week

 

US Farmer Co-Op CHS Joins Brazil Grain Terminal Project

CHS Inc., the largest farmer-owned cooperative in the US, will partner with Brazilian train operator Rumo SA to build a major grain terminal in the South American nation’s largest port.

The companies have agreed to create a joint venture that will construct and share control of the new terminal in the southern port of Santos, Rumo said Thursday in a filing. The terminal will have capacity to handle as much as 9 million metric tons of grains and 3.5 million metric tons of fertilizer.

The project will cost about 2.5 billion reais ($440 million), Rumo said in March when the grain terminal was first announced.

The move underscores the outlook for ever-expanding crops in Brazil, which is the world’s largest exporter of soybeans and the No. 2 corn supplier. The country has quickly expanded its export capacity over the past decade, including through a network of terminals along tributaries of the Amazon River. That has reduced shipping costs and boosted Brazilian farmers’ ability to compete with their counterparts in the US.

“Brazil is a growing producer and shipper of crops that CHS global customers rely on,” John Griffith, the cooperative’s executive vice president of agriculture and hedging, said in a statement.

The project will take about 30 months to be completed after securing licensing, legal and regulatory approvals, according to CHS.

Rumo is owned by Cosan SA, the agribusiness and energy conglomerate controlled by billionaire Rubens Ometto.

 

 

 

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