Global Ag News for Aug 9.23

TOP HEADLINES

Rice Soars to Highest Since 2008 on Rising Threats to Supply

  • Asian benchmark Thai white rice 5% broken jumps to $648 a ton
  • Thailand urges farmers to sow crops that need less water

Rice prices soared to the highest in almost 15 years in Asia on mounting concerns over global supplies as dry weather threatens production in Thailand and after top shipper India banned some exports.

Thai white rice 5% broken, an Asian benchmark, jumped to $648 a ton, the most expensive since October 2008, according to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association on Wednesday. That brings the increase in prices to almost 50% in the past year.

Rice is vital to the diets of billions of people in Asia and Africa, and the surge in prices could add to inflationary pressures and boost import bills for buyers.

The latest threat to supply comes from Thailand, the second-biggest shipper. Authorities are encouraging farmers to switch to crops that need less water as the nation braces for drier conditions with the onset of El Niño.

Cumulative rainfall in the key central growing region is 40% below normal, and the move to curb planting is to conserve water for households. The government previously asked growers to reap only one crop this year.

Last month, India widened its shipment ban to protect domestic supplies, spurring panic buying in some countries. The curbs exacerbated worries over a global shortage amid growing world consumption.

Map of Indonesia

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 12 3/4; Soymeal up $3.20; Soyoil up 0.59.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 15 3/4 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans down 14 3/4; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil down 1.09.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 3/4 in SRW, down 49 1/4 in HRW, down 30 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/4; Soybeans down 13; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil up 0.45.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 17.8% in SRW, down 13.4% in HRW, down 12.1% in HRS; Corn is down 28.2%; Soybeans down 5.9%; Soymeal down 9.5%; Soyoil up 4.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 23) Soybeans up 78 yuan; Soymeal up 48; Soyoil down 22; Palm oil down 18; Corn up 26 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 65 ringgit (+1.76%) at 3758.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,398 SRW Wheat contracts; 448 Oats; 0 Corn; 11 Soybeans; 71 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 147 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 8 were: SRW Wheat down 997 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,779, Corn down 7,379, Soybeans down 1,546, Soymeal down 259, Soyoil down 4,544.

WEATHER

Extreme heat, which has retreated into the Deep South, will maintain stress on rangeland, pastures, and immature summer crops, especially in Texas and the broader western Gulf Coast region.

During the weekend, heat will build across much of the western U.S., possibly contributing to an increased wildfire threat. Meanwhile, the Midwest should remain favorably cool, with temperatures mostly below 90°F. The cool weather will benefit Midwestern corn and soybeans, although some areas could benefit from additional rain. During the next 5 days, significant rain (locally 1 to 3 inches or more) will be focused across the mid-South, possibly extending as far north as the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

In contrast, little or no rain will fall in Texas and Louisiana, as well as the Far West. The Southwestern monsoon circulation will remain weak, with spotty showers affecting the Four Corners States and possibly extending into southern California and the southern Great Basin.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for August 13 – 17 calls for the likelihood of near- or above-normal temperatures and rainfall across much of the country. Cooler-than-normal conditions will be confined to the northern Plains and upper Midwest, while drier-than-normal weather should be limited to the western Gulf Coast region and the Far West.

The player sheet for Aug. 8 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it bought 235,000 metric tons of Russian wheat in an international tender. The purchase included 175,000 metric tons for Sept. 15-30 shipment and 60,000 metric tons for Oct. 1-15 shipment, GASC said.
  • WHEAT TENDER: A Syrian state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase and import 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 93,972 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close on Aug. 10.

PENDING TENDERS

  • CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 13, they said.
  • VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s GASC is seeking refined sunflower oil in one-litre bottles in an international tender. It is seeking at least 5,000 metric tons of oils, free of customs, on behalf of the Holding Company for Food Industries, for delivery during October and/or November and/or December. Deadline for submitting offers is Aug. 17.

 TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 4 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen lower than last week at 1.061m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 22.868m bbl vs 22.86m a week ago

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2022-23 Corn Output Seen at 135.5M Tons

Brazil corn production seen 7.8m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.

  • The range of estimates varied from 130.8m tons to 139.4m tons
  • Brazil’s soybean crop seen at 156m tons vs 154.6m in July
  • Last month, the agency raised its corn output est. by 2m tons while lowering soybean output by 1.2m tons
  • Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest estimates on Aug. 10 at 9am local time

 Brazil Soybean Exports Jan-August Estimated At 81.8 Mln Tns, Above 77.8 Million Tns For The Entire 2022

  • BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING UP TO 8.8 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 5 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST 2022 – ANEC
  • BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING UP TO 9.8 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 6.8 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST 2022 – ANEC
  • BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.2 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 1.6 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST 2022 – ANEC
  • BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS JAN-AUGUST ESTIMATED AT 81.8 MILLION TNS, ABOVE 77.8 MILLION TNS RECORDED FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR OF 2022

Brazil August corn shipments could be highest ever for month, Anec data shows

Corn exports from Brazil in August were estimated at a range of 7.8 million to 9.8 million metric tons on Tuesday, putting shipments on track to reach record levels for the month, according to grain exporters’ association Anec.

If projections are confirmed, Brazil could surpass the August 2019 record of 7.67 million metric tons.

In the same period last year, shipments were close to 7 million metric tons, Anec data shows.

August shipments already reflect harvesting of Brazil’s second-corn crop, which is planted after soybeans and represents about 75% of national production in a given year.

Despite August’s breakneck shipment pace, Anec maintained the forecast for Brazilian corn exports in 2023 at 52 million metric tons, also a record above last year’s 44.7 million metric tons.

In addition to record overall corn production, Chinese demand is driving Brazil’s corn exports, the data show.

For soy, Brazilian exports this month were forecast at between 7 million and 8.8 million metric tons, also above shipments of 5 million tons in August 2022, but already below the monthly high for the year of 14.44 million tons in March 2023.

Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean producer and supplier, ships most of its soybeans in the first half.

According to Anec, Brazil’s soy shipments from January to August may reach 81.8 million metric tons, exceeding the volume registered in the whole of 2022.

Last year, Brazil exported 77.8 million metric tons.

For 2023, Anec projects record exports of 99 metric million tons of soybeans from Brazil, amid a record harvest that made the local product very competitive.

Brazil has even exported soy to rival suppliers the United States and Argentina. In the case of the latter, production was spoiled by a severe drought.

CROP SURVEY: Cotton Production, Inventories Before USDA WASDE

US 2023-24 ending stocks seen at 3.4m bales, 400,000 bales below USDA’s previous est. of 3.8m bales, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

  • The range of estimates varied from 2.6m to 3.8m bales
  • US production seen 723,000 bales lower than the July est.
  • Global ending stocks seen at 93.8m bales vs 94.5m bales in July

EU 2023/24 soybean imports 1.09 mln T by Aug 6

European Union soybean imports so far in the 2023/24 season had reached 1.09 million metric tons by Aug. 6, compared with 1.37 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

Ukraine to ‘Pick’ Targets if Russia Blocks Ports, Zelenskiy Says

If Russia continues to dominate Ukrainian coastal waters, hamper transit and fire missiles at its ports, Ukraine will start doing the same, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.

  • “If they are blocking our waters, Ukraine will pick some targets in order to prevent our waters from being blocked,” he told a group of Latin American reporters in Kyiv, according to a video on his Telegram channel.
  • He didn’t specify when Ukraine may start engaging with Russian targets.

Ukraine’s 2023/24 grain exports total 2.76 mln T so far -ministry

Ukraine’s grain exports have totalled 2.76 million metric tons so far in the 2023/24 July-June season, Agriculture Ministry data showed on Wednesday.

The ministry gave no comparative figures for the same date a year earlier but said the shipments were at 2.34 million tons as of Aug. 12, 2022.

Exports have been affected since Russia quit a United Nations-backed grain deal last month but the ministry’s data did not give a breakdown on exports since the deal collapsed.

The ministry said Ukraine had exported 488,000 tons of grain in August so far.

The total volume of grain exports so far this season included 1.33 million tons of corn, 1.08 million tons of wheat and 349,000 tons of barley.

Exports for the entire 2022/23 season were almost 49 million tons, exceeding the previous season’s 48.4 million tons.

Most of the volume was exported via deep Black Sea ports under the deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July to tackle a global food crisis worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and blockade of Ukrainian ports.

Russia left the deal on July 17 after saying its demands to ease sanctions on its own grain and fertilizer exports had not been met. Moscow also complained that not enough grain had reached poor countries.

A major grain grower and exporter, Ukraine’s grain output dropped to about 53 million tons in clean weight in calendar 2022, down from a record 86 million tons in 2021.

The ministry has said the crop could total 50 to 55 million tons of grain in 2023.

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 16% In Season Through Aug. 6

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 2.92m tons as of Aug. 6, compared with 3.48m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

  • Leading destinations include Morocco (652k tons), Algeria (457k tons) and Nigeria (229k tons)
  • Barley exports are at 594k tons, down 58% y/y
  • Corn imports are at 1.39m tons, down 33% y/y

 

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