Global Ag News for Aug 31.22
Wheat prices overnight are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 9 in HRW, down 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/2; Soybeans down 13; Soymeal down $0.42; Soyoil down 0.34.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 6 1/2 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans down 41 3/4; Soymeal down $0.82; Soyoil down 0.87.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 14 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, down 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 48 3/4; Soybeans down 49; Soymeal up $1.80; Soyoil up 0.35.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3% in SRW, up 14% in HRW, down -8% in HRS; Corn is up 13%; Soybeans up 14%; Soymeal up 12%; Soyoil up 26%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 64 yuan; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil down 44; Palm oil down 30; Corn down 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 30 ringgit (-0.72%) at 4144.
There were changes in registrations (431 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 3,084 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 61 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 30 were: SRW Wheat down 2,773 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,263, Corn down 14,408, Soybeans up 2,042, Soymeal down 5,542, Soyoil up 660.
Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Thursday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south through Saturday. 6Outlook: Isolated showers in Texas Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.
The player sheet for Aug. 30 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and unchanged soyoil.
- CORN SALE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has bought an estimated 137,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender which closed on Tuesday
- WHEAT SALE: Jordan has purchased 60,000 tonnes of wheat from CHS in an international tender, a government source told Reuters on Tuesday.
- WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has started buying milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Tuesday and sought limited shipments to two ports only, European traders said in initial assessments. The purchase was expected to be sourced from Russia, although technically supplies are optional origin.
- SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 264,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2022/23 marketing year.
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy 95,497 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that will close on Thursday.
- FAILED FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for up to 100,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat which closed on Tuesday.
- FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice
- SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 30,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buying agency postponed the deadline for submission of price offers in its international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of wheat from Sept. 1 to Sept. 18.
ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 26 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen lower than last week at 971k b/d
- Would be the lowest weekly output since April
- Stockpile avg est. 23.877m bbl vs 23.807m a week ago
Drought Triggers ‘Catastrophic’ Corn Harvest in France: Agritel
Agritel forecasts a “catastrophic” corn harvest in France this year at 10.8m tons, the lowest in more than 20 years, as drought affects crops across the continent, according to a statement.
- France 2022 wheat production is estimated at 33.63m tons, or 1.3m tons below the five-year average, Agritel says
- Current unprecedented pace of exports won’t be able to hold; more than 2.5m tons were exported in July-August, just 25% of an export potential Agritel estimates to be 10.2m tons
- Rises in production and fertilizer costs could harm sector if wheat prices drop next year
- “The wheat production of the five major exporters outside the Black Sea is barely progressing compared to last year. It will not allow them to cover a failure of Ukraine or Russia,” analyst Nathan Cordier said at a briefing
- Russia can compensate for shortfall of wheat from Ukraine, but Russian exports in July-August declined 17%: Agritel
Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 5.284 mln Tns in August – Anec
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 5.284 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS UP TO 5.504 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
- BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.853 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 1.924 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.142 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 7.529 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
MGEX Spring Wheat Stocks Down 42.6% From Year Ago: Aug. 28
Stocks of hard spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses fell to 14.798m bushels in the week ending Aug. 28, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s weekly report.
- Stockpiles rose by 14k bu from the previous week
- Stockpiles in Duluth/Superior warehouses down 11k bu
USDA July soybean crush seen at 180.5 million bushels
The U.S. soybean crush likely rose to 5.416 million short tons in July, or 180.5 million bushels, according to the average forecast of eight analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.
The July crush would be up from a nine-month low of 174.1 million bushels processed in June and well above the 166.3 million bushels crushed in July 2021. It would also be the second-largest July crush on record, behind only July 2020 when crushers processed 184.5 million bushels of soybeans.
Crush estimates ranged from 179.0 million bushels to 181.7 million bushels, with a median of 180.5 million bushels.
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Thursday.
U.S. soyoil stocks as of July 31 were estimated to have dropped to 2.221 billion lbs, a 10-month low, based on the average of estimates from six analysts. The stocks would be down from 2.316 billion lbs at the end of June but up from supplies totaling 2.070 billion lbs at the end of July last year.
Estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 2.190 billion to 2.278 billion lbs, with a median of 2.217 billion lbs.
National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) members, which account for about 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 170.220 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 3.4% from June and up 9.7% from July 2021. Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of July 31 fell to 1.684 billion lbs, the smallest end-of-month stocks since August.
Argentine grains producers have sold 51.6% of 21/22 soybeans so far -government
Argentina’s grain producers have sold 51.6% of the 2021/22 soybean harvest so far, the country’s Ministry of Agriculture said on Tuesday, lagging behind the 62% sales rate reported at the same point in the previous season.
Argentina soybean production in the 2021/22 cycle was 44 million tonnes, down from 46 million tonnes the previous cycle, according to government data, with the country serving as the world’s leading exporter of meal derived from the oilseed.
Sales have slowed as Argentina faces an inflation crisis, prompting farmers to push for a devaluation of the pesos to improve the dollar value of their grains.
From Aug. 18 to 24, local producers sold 350,000 tonnes of 2021/22 soybeans to agro-exporters.
Meanwhile, producers have already sold 64% of the corn for 2021/22 cycle, on par with the figures reported last August.
The 2021/22 corn harvest totaled 59 million tonnes, down from 60.5 million in the previous cycle, according to government data, whose calculations include the grains used as field fodder.
With the harvesting of Argentine soybeans and corn for the season now complete, sowing for the 2022/23 cycle will begin between September and October.
Separately, Argentina’s 2022/2023 wheat harvest will begin in November, with the latest official data showing the fields to be mostly in a positive condition after rains. [nL6N3010EU]
The government has not yet estimated the harvest for the new cereal campaign, although the Rosario grains exchange estimated wheat production for 22/23 at 17.7 million tonnes.
Malaysia Aug. Palm Oil Exports +1.6% M/m: Intertek
Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Aug. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.
- Total exports for Aug. 2022: 1.299m tons
- Crude palm oil exports: 297,565 tons, 22.9% of total
- EU led all destinations for total exports: 371,400 tons
Poland, Ukraine to Work on Vegetable Oil Pipeline Project
Polish government agrees to sign MoU with Ukraine on vegetable oil pipeline, it says on website.
- The pipeline would transport vegetable oil from Ukraine to Polish Baltic Sea port of Gdansk
- Countries to set up working group; MoU is valid for 3 years, with an option to extend
- The pipeline “will help unblock Ukraine’s export and boost food security in developing countries at risk of hunger. It should ease the migration pressure on Europe”
Indonesia Keeps Palm Oil Export Tax at $74/Ton for Sept. 1-15
Indonesia revises crude palm oil reference price to $929.66/ton for Sept. 1-15, Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, says in text messages.
- NOTE: Govt previously said reference price set at $930.02/ton for the period
- Revised reference price means export tax is kept at $74/ton for first half of September
- Trade ministry’s secretary for directorate general of foreign trade Asep Asmara confirmed the reference price
- Trade minister’s decree on reference price will be issued soon
Corn-Carrying Vessels Authorized to Leave Ports in Ukraine: JCC
Three vessels carrying a total of 107k metric tons of grain and food products are authorized to leave Ukraine on Wednesday, the Joint Coordination Centre says in an emailed statement.
- The Maran Astronomer is carrying 74,500 metric tons of corn from Yuhzny/Pivdennyi to Spain
- Lady Aillar is hauling 27k metric tons of corn from Yuhzny/Pivdennyi to Tarragona, Spain
- Hazar S is transporting 5,500 metric tons of corn from Chornomorsk to Bandirma, Turkey
- Also, Afanasiy Matyushenko, carrying 3k metric tons of wheat, delayed its scheduled departure of Tuesday to Wednesday from Chornomorsk to Tekirdag, Turkey
- So far, 1.4M metric tons of grain and other food products have been shipped under the initiative to ensure safe transport of food and fertilizer in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Manitoba Says Harvest Progress ‘Well Behind’ Five-Year Average
Harvest is 3% complete, well behind the five-year average of 39%, the province’s agriculture ministry says Tuesday in a report.
- Delayed seeding, high humidity and frequent rainfall has slowed crop drydown
- Crop conditions look good to very good in most parts of Manitoba
- Warm, sunny weather expected to help spring wheat harvest advance this week
US Corn Plantings Seen Rising Next Year, Soybeans Lower: Survey
US farmers are expecting to plant a total of 94.3m acres of corn next year, a 5% increase from USDA estimates for 2022 if realized, a Farm Futures survey found.
- Projected seedings would be the largest amount of US planted corn since 2013, said Farm Futures analyst Jacqueline Holland
- Soybean acres for 2023 came in at 87.3m, down 0.8% from this year’s estimated plantings
- Farm Futures calculates 7.5% more US winter wheat acres planted this fall vs last year, raising the 2023 crop total to 36.6m acres
- That would mark the largest winter wheat crop in the country since the 2015-16 crop planted in fall of 2014
- Spring and durum wheat growers reported expectations to plant 5.4% fewer acres in 2023 vs this year’s combined acreage of 13m acres for all spring wheat varieties
- That would be the 10th smallest US spring wheat crop planted since records began in 1926
- Total US wheat sowings are projected to rise to 48.8m acres, the eighth smallest total wheat crop in US history if realized
- NOTE: The survey taken July 13-Aug. 1 includes 692 farmer responses
USDA Sees Agriculture Exports Down in 2023 on Lower Cotton, Beef
The USDA projects fiscal year 2023 exports to fall by $2.5b to $193.5b, according to the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report released on Tuesday.
- Cotton exports seen falling by $1.8b to $7b
- Beef sales seen falling by $1.1b to $9.8b
- Meanwhile, soybean exports seen increasing by $2.2b
- The US leading export destination remains China at $36b, unchanged from the 2022 est.
Indonesia May Import GMO Soybean Seeds to Boost Local Output
Indonesia plans to import genetically-modified soybean seeds to increase domestic production and reduce imports of the commodity, says Kasdi Subagyono, secretary general of agriculture ministry.
- Expansion of soybean planting areas are limited due to lack of seeds supply, Subagyono tells parliament on Wednesday
- Seed imports may be required while the government develops local seeds
- Govt is seeking to increase local food crops production, particularly the ones that are sensitive to inflation, such as chili and shallots
Corteva, BASF Announce Collaboration on Herbicide-Tolerant Soy
Corteva and BASF announced a “strategic cross-licensing agreement” on herbicide-tolerant soybeans and corresponding herbicides for farmers in North America and elsewhere, according to a release Tuesday at the Farm Progress Show in Iowa.
- BASF will license a proprietary gene to Corteva to develop new trait stack that will be licensed to independent seed companies to help control weeds in soy fields
- Commercialization is anticipated in the “early 2030s” pending regulatory approval
WMO forecasts first ‘triple-dip’ La Nina of the century
The La Nina weather pattern will last until at least the end of the year, becoming the first time this century it will have spanned three consecutive northern winters, the World Meteorological Organization predicted on Wednesday.
La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific strengthened as trade winds intensified in mid-July to mid-August, affecting temperatures and precipitation patterns and exacerbating drought and flooding in different parts of the world.
The WMO’s El Nino/La Nina Update foresaw the current La Nina – which started in September 2020 – continuing over the next six months, with a 70% chance in September-November 2022 and decreasing to 55% in December-February 2022-2023.
La Nina refers to the cooling of ocean surface temperatures coupled with winds and rainfall. It usually has the opposite impact on weather and climate as El Nino, which is the warm phase of the so-called El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
“It is exceptional to have three consecutive years with a La Nina event. Its cooling influence is temporarily slowing the rise in global temperatures – but it will not halt or reverse the long-term warming trend,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement.
He said the worsening drought in the Horn of Africa and southern South America bore the hallmarks of La Nina, as did above-average rainfall in southeast Asia and Australasia.
“The new La Nina Update unfortunately confirms regional climate projections that the devastating drought in the Horn of Africa will worsen and affect millions of people,” he added.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.