Global Ag News for Aug 15.24

TOP HEADLINES

Rain-soaked French wheat crop showing mixed milling quality, FranceAgriMer says

This year’s rain-affected French soft wheat crop that is set to bring the smallest volume since the 1980s is also showing mixed milling quality, with satisfactory protein levels but erratic test weights, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Wednesday.

Hagberg falling numbers, another milling specification, were generally satisfactory, FranceAgriMer said in a joint statement with crop institutes Arvalis and Terres Inovia, without giving figures for wheat quality results.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $2.30; Soyoil up 0.13.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans down 27 3/4; Soymeal down $4.40; Soyoil down 2.11.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 10 1/4 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 17 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans down 47 3/4; Soymeal down $9.70; Soyoil down 3.31.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.8% in SRW, down 13.8% in HRW, down 17.2% in HRS; Corn is down 18.9%; Soybeans down 25.9%; Soymeal down 20.3%; Soyoil down 16.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 14 yuan; Soymeal up 36; Soyoil up 58; Palm oil up 70; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 31.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 31 ringgit (+0.83%) at 3754.

There were changes in registrations (-5 Soyoil, 1 Soymeal). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 856 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 14 were: SRW Wheat up 8,605 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,986, Corn down 5,308, Soybeans down 4,966, Soymeal up 2,539, Soyoil up 6,772.

 

Northern Plains: A few systems and disturbances will be moving into the region over the next week, providing occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures should generally be rising into next week, though models disagree on that somewhat. The rain could interrupt wheat harvest and reduce quality if it becomes heavy, but most areas should see light or moderate amounts. That would be more beneficial for filling corn and soybeans except for areas that continue to be too wet.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers may continue for the next few days, and even isolated showers will be possible next week. Conditions are overall favorable for filling corn and soybeans currently. A ridge should bring higher temperatures northward this weekend and into next week, though models disagree on that. If the heat returns, there could be some significant stress developing in the region again.

Midwest: A system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the region over the next several days, leaving eastward this weekend. Temperatures remain mild and are forecast to largely stay that way into next week. A front may come through early next week with limited showers but another burst of cooler air that will keep conditions largely favorable for filling corn and soybeans.

Delta: Soil moisture continues to fall across the region as cotton and soybeans find less and less moisture to use as they fill. A system moving through the Corn Belt the next few days may clip the northern end of the region with some showers, but most areas should stay dry. There is a better chance with a front moving through this weekend and some isolated showers may linger into next week. Temperatures are rising out ahead of the front, but will fall a bit behind it. Still, it is largely hot and dry in much of the region, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

Canadian Prairies: A few disturbances will move through the region with scattered showers going through next week. Overall heavy rain is not forecast, though some areas could see a few downpours from thunderstorms. The rainfall will be unlikely to be helpful as wheat and canola are maturing, and could cause a reduction in quality and delays to harvest in some areas.

Europe: Temperatures continue to be hot for much of the continent this week, especially the east. A front moving through western areas will stall from the Alps to Poland where showers will continue the rest of the week. Another front moves in behind it to push it eastward this weekend with scattered showers as well. Some areas are getting needed rain while others are being left out. Spain, Italy, and southeastern countries have had a hot and drier summer season that has been stressing summer crops but should cash in on some rainfall. Germany has been the epicenter of wet conditions and more falling this week won’t help either.

Black Sea: A system in northwestern Russia has not provided much precipitation to a region that has been awfully dry in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia and it is too late for rain to do anything other than stabilize a poor crop. Conditions elsewhere in the region are better. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week, hitting the better areas and skipping over the poor ones. Temperatures will be increasing through the weekend and be stressful again in those drier areas.

 

August Deliveries

• Soybeans
  • 8/14: 3
  • Total:  126
• Soybean Oil
  • 8/14: 92
  • Total: 1,663
• Soybean Meal
  • 8/14: 1
  • Total: 1

 

The player sheet for Aug. 14 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Importers in the Philippines are believed to have bought around 50,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley that closed on Wednesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Aug. 8.

• Corn est. range 525k – 1,300k tons, with avg of 858k
• Soybean est. range 500k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,038k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.7% to 23.354M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.846 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.072m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.08m

 

NOPA July US soybean crush seen at 182.367 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely rose in July to the highest ever for the seventh month of the year, while soyoil stocks dipped to a six-month low, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Thursday.

NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 182.367 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If realized, it would be up 3.9% from the June crush of 175.599 million bushels and up 5.2% from the 173.303 million bushels in July 2023. It would also be the largest July crush on record, eclipsing the prior mark set last year.

U.S. soybean crushing capacity has trended higher in recent years as new facilities opened and others expanded in pursuit of rising vegetable oil demand from renewable fuels makers.

Processors are anticipating having an ample supply of beans to crush in the coming months after the U.S. Department of Agriculture this week projected a record large 2024 U.S. soybean harvest.

Crush estimates for July ranged from 178.500 million to 185.000 million bushels, with a median of 182.929 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Thursday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of July 31 were estimated at 1.608 billion lbs, based on estimates from seven analysts.

If the estimate is realized, it would be down 0.8% from 1.622 billion lbs at the end of June and the smallest end-of-month supply since January. But it would be up 5.3% from the 1.527 billion lbs of oil held by NOPA members at the end of July last year.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.520 billion to 1.700 billion lbs, with a median of 1.600 billion lbs.

 

French Soft Wheat Quality Is Similar to Last Year: Groups

The average French soft wheat quality is seen similar to last year’s, according to a joint statement from FranceAgriMer, Arvarlis and Terres Inovia.

• Protein content varies across regions
• Weight of soft wheat is very irregular due to varying sunshine and rain across the country; eastern regions have lower weight while western weights are fair to good
• Durum wheat has large variability across France
  • Low protein content is seen in the southeast and center-west of the country, irregular in the southwest and average in the central regions
  • Weights also vary within and across regions
• Winter barley proteins are still of a good enough standard for brewing, while spring barley weights are low
• Rapeseed is of a good quality with strong Omega-3 content

 

Estimate for Argentina’s current corn crop up about 3%, says Rosario exchange

Argentina’s current 2023/24 corn harvest will likely reach 49 million metric tons, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, up about 3% compared to its previous forecast of 47.5 million tons.

In a statement, the exchange said it also expects the South American country’s upcoming 2024/25 corn crop to yield 49 million tons.

The 2024/25 corn crop is also expected to cover 7.67 million hectares, down by about a fifth compared to the previous harvesting season, according to the exchange.

 

India Palm Oil Imports Jump to 11-Month High on Duty Hike Talks

• Soybean oil imports in July climbed 42% from month earlier
• Vegetable oil purchases rose more than 22% to 1.9 million tons

Indian traders and refiners boosted palm oil purchases on speculation that the world’s biggest vegetable oil buyer will increase import duties following national elections that ended in June.

Inbound shipments of the most-used vegetable oil surged almost 38% from a month earlier to 1.08 million tons in July, according to the Solvent Extractors Association of India. That was the highest since August 2023 when the country bought 1.13 million tons, it said.

Palm imports also rose because companies are building reserves before the festival season starting next month, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the association. Vegetable oil consumption tends to rise between September and November as Hindus celebrate major religious events such as Dussehra and Diwali. The tropical oil is commonly used for frying and to make treats like biryani and jalebi.

Higher purchases by India, which imports about 60% of its edible oil needs, may support benchmark prices of palm oil in Kuala Lumpur. The commodity, used in products from cooking oil to shampoo, has slumped about 15% from a 17-month high in April on concerns about swelling supplies in Malaysia. Production in the Southeast Asian nation rose to a nine-month high in July.

• India imported 391,791 tons of soybean oil in July, up 42% from a month earlier, according to the association
• Sunflower oil imports dropped to 366,541 tons from 465,647 tons in June
• Total vegetable oil purchases were almost 1.9 million tons, compared with 1.55 million in June
• Palm oil imports fell to 6.85 million tons in nine months ended July 31, from 7.1 million a year ago
• Soybean oil purchases during the nine-month period fell almost 20% to 2.26 million tons; sunflower oil imports rose to 2.83 million tons from 2.2 million

 

Ukraine Corn Exports Seen 2.7M Tons Below USDA Estimate: FAS

Corn exports from Ukraine are seen at 21.8m tons for the 2024-25 marking year, below the USDA official forecast of 24.5m tons, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report.

• Production for the season was also seen below the USDA expectation at 26.2m tons
  • The lower figures are seen “due to a drought that stretched from the end of June to mid-July 2024”
  • The drought hit corn plants in the flowering stage, affecting yields
• Wheat production is seen at 22.3m tons, higher than the official USDA estimate at 19.5m tons
  • Exports are seen minimally higher
• Total grain ending stocks for season seen at 2.3m tons, “under assumptions that Ukraine will be able to keep its trade routes in the Black Sea open”

 

Expected precipitation may reduce drought stress in the southeast for Australia wheat

2024/25 Australia: 29.4 [27.1-33.1] million tons, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Australia wheat production is maintained at 29.4 million tons amid expectations for improved precipitation in the Southeast. Over the past two weeks, the major wheat producing state Western Australia (WA) received average rainfall (7-38 mm), while New South Whales (NSW), South Australia (SA), Queensland (QLD), and Victoria (VIC) received little rains (15-40 mm) deficits). Crop vegetation densities in the southeast, including SA and VIC, are well below the long-term median, indicating severe drought stress. Throughout the next ten days, near normal precipitation may fall across the country, which will reduce current drought stress in the southeast, but more rainfall is needed to replenish soil moisture. Weather conditions during September are crucial for Australia wheat yield formation. According to the latest EC Seasonal model run (5 August), normal temperatures and wet weather are expected to prevail across the key crop regions in September. If verified, the wet weather would eliminate drought concerns and largely improve crop conditions in the country.

 

 

 

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