TOP HEADLINES
Argentina oilseed workers’ strike nears one-week mark
An oilseed workers’ strike in Argentina is set to carry on into its seventh day on Monday as wage negotiations with firms remained stalled, affecting shipments from one of the world’s major grain exporters.
“We will continue with the strike,” Martin Morales, union secretary for the San Lorenzo Department Oilseed Workers and Employees Union (SOEA) told Reuters on Sunday. “Tomorrow we will evaluate again (whether or not to continue).”
Two industrial unions kicked off the strike News Story as workers demanded that salaries stay ahead of high inflation.
Morales said that the companies affected had yet to reach out to the unions to negotiate.
The strike has mainly affected terminals located north of Rosario along the Parana River, where more than 80% of Argentina’s agricultural and agro-industrial exports are shipped.
At least three dozen ships were still delayed on Sunday near Rosario, one of the most important agro-export hubs in the world.
In June, the federal government had forced SOEA to suspend a strike by calling it to mandatory reconciliation talks, forcing the union and firms back to the negotiating table.
Argentina is a major grains producer and is a top exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal.
The country’s economy heavily relies on the foreign-exchange funds brought in by grains exports, as the government works to shore up scarce central bank reserves.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, down 5 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 4 3/4; Soymeal up $1.80; Soyoil down 0.61.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 13 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13 1/4; Soybeans down 43; Soymeal down $19.60; Soyoil up 0.28.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans down 24 3/4; Soymeal down $3.50; Soyoil down 1.81.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.6% in SRW, down 14.8% in HRW, down 19.2% in HRS; Corn is down 20.3%; Soybeans down 21.1%; Soymeal down 15.1%; Soyoil down 10.3%.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 13 yuan; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil down 8; Palm oil up 20; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 38.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 38 ringgit (-1.01%) at 3709.
There were changes in registrations (-22 Soyoil). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 946 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 9 were: SRW Wheat down 6,361 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,481, Corn down 6,024, Soybeans down 3,681, Soymeal down 2,139, Soyoil down 4,315.
August Deliveries
- Soybeans
- 8/9: 0
- Total: 123
- Soybean Oil
- 8/9: 14
- Total: 1,436
- Soybean Meal
- Total: 0
Northern Plains: Scattered showers moved back in this weekend and multiple disturbances moving into the region will keep up shower chances throughout this week and next. The rain could interrupt wheat harvest and reduce quality if it becomes heavy, but most areas should see moderate amounts. That would be more beneficial for filling corn and soybeans except for areas that continue to be too wet.
Central/Southern Plains: Heavy flooding rain developed in Oklahoma over the weekend, but other areas stayed dry or saw only light rain. Texas was hot while the rest of the region was much cooler. Several disturbances will push through the region this week with scattered showers nearly every day, unusual for mid-August but overall good for filling corn and soybeans. Temperatures will gradually rise this week, but only be hot across the south most likely.
Midwest: It was a cool and dry weekend, keeping stress and water demand low for the region for filling corn and soybeans. A couple of systems will pass through the region this week and models have picked up on the precipitation forecast, leaving many areas with good moisture through the weekend. Cool temperatures will rise this week, but stay mild and not stressful during this important stretch for both crops.
Delta: It was dry over the weekend, continuing the trend from the last two weeks. Temperatures were mild across the north, but hot in the south. Soil moisture continues to fall across the region as cotton and soybeans find less and less moisture to use as they fill. Several systems will move through the Corn Belt this week, which may clip the northern end of the region with some showers, but most likely it stays unfavorably dry again this week.
Canadian Prairies: It was cool and dry over the weekend. Some patchy frost may have been possible as well, though hard to detect. A few disturbances will move through the region with scattered showers this week and likely through next week as well. The rainfall will be unlikely to be helpful and could cause a reduction in quality and delays to harvest in some areas.
Brazil: A front continued to produce showers across south-central Brazil this weekend, but cold air moving in behind the front produced some limited frosts, which might have hurt more advanced wheat in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. The cold air sticks around for another couple of days but should turn hot again later this week. It should be drier across the country this week, but southern areas have some fairly good soil moisture at the moment. The region will need more moisture before first-crop soybeans and full-season corn can be planted. Soybeans need to wait until September before it is legally allowed to occur, but corn can start up whenever producers like. Most producers in central states will wait until the end of September when the wet season rains hopefully return.
Argentina: Cold air produced widespread frosts and freezes late last week. Some more limited frosts will continue early this week. Another system moves through this weekend and early next week with limited showers and another burst of cold air. Soil moisture in the country is low in most areas and more is needed prior to planting starting up next month. Winter wheat needs some more significant rainfall for it to develop properly after poor rains this winter.
Europe: A front moved through northern areas with some isolated showers this weekend while temperatures rose. Temperatures will be hot for much of the continent this week. There will be a front that moves into western areas Tuesday and Wednesday, getting stuck from the Alps to Poland where showers will continue the rest of the week. Another front moves in behind it to push it eastward this weekend. Some areas are getting needed rain while others are being left out. Spain, Italy, and southeastern countries have had a hot and drier summer season that has been stressing summer crops. Germany has been the epicenter of conditions that have been too wet and more falling this week won’t help either.
Black Sea: Largely hot and dry conditions occurred again over the weekend, continuing drought and heat stress for corn and sunflowers in the region. A system is in northwestern Russia, but will not provide much, if any, precipitation this week. It will bring in some cooler temperatures for a few days, though. Temperatures should rise late this week and weekend again, however.
Australia: A disturbance in the Pacific started to bring some showers into northeastern areas this weekend. The disturbance will stick around for the next few days with more showers possible. Western areas also saw some limited showers with a front this weekend. Another system moves through with some showers to western areas on Tuesday, with showers spreading through southeastern areas late this week. Another couple of disturbances are forecast to graze the country this weekend and next week and could keep mostly good soil moisture going for most areas while temperatures stay mild to warm, good for developing winter crops.
The player sheet for Aug. 9 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 212,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations. Of the total, 50,000 metric tons is for delivery during the current 2023/2024 marketing year, and 162,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.
- SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.
- SOYBEAN CAKE AND MEAL SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 100,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean cake and meal to Colombia. Of the total, 12,000 metric tons is for delivery during the current 2023/2024 marketing year, and 88,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.
- WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased around 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender on Thursday
- CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender on Friday.
PENDING TENDERS
- WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, announced a massive tender for 3.8 million metric tons of wheat to cover imports between October 2024 and April 2025. The deadline for offers is Aug 12.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
TODAY
China Raises Forecast for Soybean Imports in 2023-24 Year
China raised estimates for soybean imports in the 2023-24 after crushers stepped up purchases to benefit from falling prices.
- China will bring in 98.37 million tons of soybeans in the marketing year that runs through September 2024, according to the monthly China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released on Monday
- That’s up 2.27 million tons from an estimate last month
- The drop in global prices has pushed down import costs enough to lure more Chinese buying, according to the report
- China also raised its estimates for soybean crushing volumes in the year by 0.4% to 96.15 million tons, as improved margins from pig farming led to more processing of the oilseed
- Production of edible oils in 2023-24 seen at 30.39 million tons, up 490,000 tons from earlier forecast, thanks to higher imports of soybeans and rapeseed
- Estimates for production, imports and consumption for corn, soybeans, edible oils, cotton, and sugar for the 2024-25 marketing year remain unchanged
- Continuous heavy rain in parts of Yunnan province and lower than normal level of precipitation in northern Guangxi region, both top producers of sugar, have affected growth of sugar cane, according to the report
China raises 2023/24 soy import forecast in August
China’s agriculture ministry raised its forecast for soybean imports in the 2023/24 crop year to 98.37 million metric tons in its August outlook released on Monday.
The ministry said it adjusted its import estimates higher by 2.27 million tons compared to the previous outlook, as falling global soybean prices significantly lowered import costs.
Soybean crushing consumption is estimated at 96.15 million tons, which is 350,000 tons higher than last month’s estimates, due to steadily improving hog margins, it said.
APK-Inform raises Ukraine 2024 grain harvest forecast to 55 mln T
APK-Inform has increased its forecast for Ukraine’s 2024 grain harvest to 55 million from 52.76 million metric tons citing larger wheat and corn harvests, the consultancy said.
In its report it also raised its forecast for Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season to 38.8 million tons from 36.16 million.
Exports could include 13.4 million tons of wheat and 23 million tons of corn, it said.
Ukraine Harvests 20.9m Tons of Wheat as of Friday: Ministry
The country is near the end of its campaign with 27.3m of grains harvested so far, compared with 16.6m in the same period last year, the Agriculture Ministry says on its website.
- Total includes:
- 20.9m tons of wheat reaped on 97% of sowing area vs 12.5m tons as of Aug. 4, 2023
- 1.4m tons of barley vs 3.8m tons
- More than 3.3m tons of oilseed cultures harvested
- NOTE: Ukraine expects to harvest 56m tons of grain this year
Malaysian Palm Oil Reserves Fall as Exports Up Most in Six Years
- July stockpiles dropped 5.4% from a month ago, MPOB data show
- Overseas shipments soared 40% to 1.69 million tons last month
Palm oil inventories in Malaysia declined to a four-month low as exports from the world’s second-biggest grower posted the biggest jump since September 2018.
Stockpiles fell 5.4% from a month earlier to 1.73 million tons in July, according to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. That was the lowest level since March and below the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey last week that predicted a rise of 1.1% to 1.85 million tons.
“The MPOB report is mildly bullish for the palm oil market, as stockpiles surprisingly fell against expectations of an increase,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental.
Exports from Malaysia soared almost 40% to 1.69 million tons, higher than the survey estimate of 1.52 million tons.
“The export momentum may not continue in August as a jump in Malaysian shipments last month was largely due to the pipeline being dry in the biggest buyer India,” Thiagarajan said. “Indian importers are waiting for a sharp fall in physical prices before making festival purchases.”
Crude palm oil production advanced 14% to a nine-month high of 1.84 million tons, after falling about 5% in June.
The stockpile numbers have defied market expectations, said Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group. However, a weakness in soybean oil could cap prices, he said.
Brazil’s Second Corn Harvest Hits 90.19%, Consultancy Patria Agronegocios Says
BRAZIL’S SECOND CORN HARVEST HITS 90.19%, CONSULTANCY PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS SAYS
SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Soy oil price rise sustains soybean values
Cepea, 2 – Soybean oil quotations rose in Brazil this week, sustaining soybean prices. The increase is related to the firm domestic demand from both the food and the biodiesel industry. Moreover, the competition between Brazilian and international purchasers for the national soybean oil has increased over the last days.
International consumers, in turn, have been allocating their acquisitions of soybean oil to Brazil, due to the recent strike of the crushing industry in Argentina.
Soy oil quotations moved up 1.5% between Aug. 1 and 8, at BRL 6,353.95 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on August 8, the highest nominal value since March 10, 2023.
Concerning soybean meal, values oscillated among regions in Brazil, moving up in the South and decreasing in the Southeast. On the average of regions surveyed by Cepea, prices remained stable.
SOYBEAN – Producers have been away from trades in the domestic market this week, focused on the possible higher demand from the crushing industry, leading liquidity to be low. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) increased 1% from August 1-8. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations moved up 0.4%.
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) rose only 0.1% from August 1-8, closing at BRL 137.80 per 60-kg bag on August 8. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 0.1% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 132.95 per 60-kg bag yesterday.
The US dollar downed 2.8% against Real between August 1 and 8, closing at BRL 5.574.
EXPORTS – Soybean oil shipments increased 54.38% from June to July, totaling 194.41 thousand tons last month, the highest volume since July/23 (196.48 thousand tons).
As for soybeans, exports amounted 11.25 million tons, downing 19.4% from one month to the other. The volume is 16% higher compared to July/23 and a record considering the months of July, according to Secex.
Concerning soybean meal, shipments dropped 1.7% from June to July and 8% against July/23, totaling 1.98 million tons (Secex).
CORN/CEPEA: Quotations drop again in Brazil
Cepea, 9 – After moving up over the last weeks, corn prices are decreasing again in some areas surveyed by Cepea. Consumers are away from closing deals, focused on domestic and international aspects, especially the high supply.
Some sellers, in turn, are already more flexible regarding values, aiming to open room in warehouses or to make cash flow to pay debts at the end of the month. Other players, on the other hand, expect prices to increase after the end of the harvest in Brazil.
Prices started this week firm, due to the fact that sellers were away from trades, but have started to decrease, influenced by international price drops. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved down only 0.7% between August 1 and 8, closing at BRL 59.02 per 60-kilo bag on Aug. 8.
On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values upped 0.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) in the same period.
In July (23 producing days), Brazil exported 3.55 million tons of corn, below the 4.23 million tons verified in the same month of 2023 – data from Secex.
At the ports of Paranaguá (PR) and Santos (SP), quotations averaged BRL 60.64/bag and BRL 62.64/bag on August 8, decreasing 2.3% and 0.8% in relation to Aug. 1. The US dollar downed 2.8% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 5.574.
HARVEST – Conab indicated that the harvesting of the second crop reached 91.3% of the total until August 3. Producers in many regions say that the productivity is below that estimated at the beginning of the season, except in Mato Grosso.
In Mato Grosso, 99.91% of the area had been harvested until August 5 (data from Imea). In Paraná, activities reached 92% up to Aug. 5 – data from Seab/Deral.
US Pork Production Falls 3.5% This Week, Beef Down: USDA
US federally inspected pork production falls to 501m pounds for the week ending Aug. 10 from 519m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.
- Hog slaughter down 3.4% from a week ago to 2.372m head
- Beef production down 0.4% from a week ago, cattle slaughter falls 0.3%
- For the year, beef production is 1.4% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.4% above
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