Global Ag News for Aug 1.23
Soybean oil use for U.S. biofuels production rose to 1,141 million lbs in May -EIA
Soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the United States rose to 1,141 million lbs used in May.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 5 1/4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil up 0.03.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 43 3/4 in SRW, down 48 1/2 in HRW, down 40 in HRS; Corn is down 17 3/4; Soybeans down 51 3/4; Soymeal down $10.40; Soyoil down 2.40.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 16.6% in SRW, down 9.0% in HRW, down 8.8% in HRS; Corn is down 25.8%; Soybeans down 4.6%; Soymeal down 5.5%; Soyoil up 3.3%.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 23) Soybeans up 19 yuan; Soymeal up 48; Soyoil down 42; Palm oil down 42; Corn down 2 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 9 ringgit (-0.23%) at 3869.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 99 3/4 in SRW, down 105 in HRW, down 76 in HRS; Corn is down 52 3/4; Soybeans down 89 1/4; Soymeal down $20.70; Soyoil down 4.26.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,398 SRW Wheat contracts; 448 Oats; 0 Corn; 11 Soybeans; 219 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 147 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 31 were: SRW Wheat up 2,248 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,976, Corn down 330, Soybeans down 14,143, Soymeal down 4,839, Soyoil down 3,292.
Northern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, producing areas of good rainfall and severe weather. Several disturbances will move through over the next week with periods of showers that may help corn and soybeans, but it is getting too late to be of much help for wheat. Temperatures will be mostly mild, limiting stress for areas that have been missed.
Central/Southern Plains: A front settled into the Central Plains over the weekend, bringing areas of showers and thunderstorms, severe weather, and cooler temperatures to northern areas. The south continued to bake in the heat. That front will remain stalled out in the same general area throughout the week, with southern areas seeing significant stress for any crops or livestock while northern areas see periods of favorable rain and temperatures that will not be as hot. A system moving through this weekend will reinforce that front, though may push it a bit farther south.
Midwest: A front sagged through the Midwest over the weekend and brought relief to temperatures and widespread rain, but also a lot of severe weather. The front will remain stalled off to the southwest but may bring additional periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Additional disturbances and a system moving through this weekend may bring some occasional showers as well. Outside of a day or two of heat, temperatures will remain mild, favorable for filling corn and pod-setting soybeans.
Delta: Heat built into the Delta over the weekend with high temperatures approaching the 100-degree mark and overnight lows in the 70s, stressful for filling soybeans and cotton. The forecast remains hot with the cold front essentially stalled over northern areas this week, though there will be some potential for precipitation with the front remaining in the area. Conditions therefore will be mixed, but very unfavorable for any areas that miss out on the rainfall.
Canadian Prairies: Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, including over southern areas that have been very dry. A system moving through early this week will provide more scattered showers, and another looks to move through later this week. Any precipitation will be somewhat beneficial but is unlikely to be very widespread. Rain is getting to be too late to affect much of the maturing wheat and canola.
The player sheet for 7/31 had funds: net sellers of 16,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 15,000 corn, sellers of 25,500 soybeans, sellers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 9,000 soyoil.
- SOYBEAN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year.
- SOYMEAL SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 183,000 metric tons of soymeal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has bought at least 590,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender. Initial purchases reported were around $276 a metric ton cost and freight included.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought at least 660,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender on Monday
- CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Korea Corn Processing Industry Association purchased about 65,000 metric tons of food grade corn expected to be sourced from Brazil.
- WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 117,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat. The deadline for submission of price offers is believed to be Aug. 1.
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 86,290 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close on Thursday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 55% G/E, Soybeans 52%
Highlights from the report:
- Corn 55% G/E vs 57% last week, and 61% a year ago
- Corn dough 29% vs 16% last week, and 24% a year ago
- Corn silking 84% vs 68% last week, and 77% a year ago
- Soybeans 52% G/E vs 54% last week, and 60% a year ago
- Soybeans blooming 83% G/E vs 70% last week, and 77% a year ago
- Spring wheat 42% G/E vs 49% last week, and 70% a year ago
- Spring wheat harvest 2% G/E vs 3% a year ago
- Winter wheat harvest 80% vs 68% last week, and 81% a year ago
- Cotton 41% G/E vs 46% last week, and 38% a year ago
- Sorghum 55% G/E vs 60% last week, and 28% a year ago
US Inspected 523k Tons of Corn for Export, 330k of Soybean
In week ending July 27, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.
- Corn: 523k tons vs 330k the previous wk, 905k a yr ago
- Wheat: 581k tons vs 361k the previous wk, 282k a yr ago
- Soybeans: 330k tons vs 288k the previous wk, 595k a yr ago
US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 27
Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 27 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.
- Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 71k tons of the 330k total inspected
- Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, China led in wheat
CROP SURVEY: US Soybean Crush and Corn for Ethanol
The following is from a Bloomberg survey of five anlaysts.
- Soybean crush seen at 175.7m bu in June, a 0.9% rise from a year ago
- Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of June seen at 2.238b lbs, down from 2.316b
- Corn used in ethanol production seen unchanged y/y at 444.2
WHEAT/CEPEA: Crops and Russia-Ukraine war influence agents in BR
The agents in the Brazilian wheat market have been focused on crops development in the southern hemisphere, while in the northern hemisphere, the harvesting is in progress. Meanwhile, these agents are monitoring the Russia-Ukraine war, which worsened after the end of the grain deal this month.
According to data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), 97.9% of the national crops of wheat had been sown by July 22nd, a progress of 4.3 percentage points in seven days. In general, activities are ending in Rio Grande do Sul (97%) and in Santa Catarina (78%). In the Cerrado, the harvesting is in progress too, majorly in Goiás (70%) and in Minas Gerais (7%), which, altogether, account for nearly 2% of the national supply.
In Argentina, according to Bolsa de Cereales, 96.4% of the national wheat crops had been sown by July 26th, a progress of 4.2 p.p. in seven days.
In the United States, 68% of Winter wheat crops had been harvested by July 23rd, according to the USDA, less than the 76% from the same period last year and below the average of the last five years (77%). Considering the Spring crop, 49% are in excellent/good conditions; 35%, in average conditions; and 16%, in bad conditions, slightly worse than the scenario in the previous week.
In Russia, according to SovEcon, 14% of the national crop have been harvested, less than the 22% from the same period last year. Crop activities have been slower in Russia because of frequent rains. Crop estimates have been revised up to 87.1 million tons, against 86.8 million tons in the previous report.
PRICES – In Brazil, mills’ purchases have been occasional. As for sellers, farmers have not been very interested in closing deals, expecting prices to rise soon due to the end of the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Cepea surveys show that, between July 21-28, the prices paid to wheat farmers rose 2.18% in Paraná and 1.01% in Santa Catarina but dropped a slight 0.18% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 1.3% in RS and 0.34% in SC but decreased 0.89% in São Paulo and 0.13% in PR. In the same period, the US dollar dropped 0.92% against the Real, closing at BRL 4.731 on July 28th.
Argentine Grain Ports Resume Operations After Strike Called Off
Port operations resumed after grain inspectors called off a strike that started earlier Monday, Nabsa shipping agency said in a note to clients.
- Strike by Urgara trade union was lifted after the government imposed “mandatory conciliation”
- NOTE: Action was earlier impacting Argentina’s major crop-export hubs on the Parana River and Atlantic coast
Ukraine Discusses Using Croatian Ports for Grain Exports
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba meets with Croatian counterpart Gordan Grlic Radman to discuss military cooperation and grain exports via Croatian ports on the Danube and Adriatic.
- “We agreed on the possibility of using Croatian ports on the Danube and the Adriatic Sea for the shipping of Ukrainian grain,” Kuleba said, according to an emailed statement from the Foreign Ministry
- “Now, we will work on laying the most efficient routes to these ports and making the most of this opportunity”
- The ministers also discussed donor conference on the de-mining of Ukraine, which Zagreb, Croatia’s capital, will host in October
El Nino weather event is likely – Australian weather bureau
Australia’s weather bureau said on Tuesday the chances of an El Nino weather event remained likely in coming weeks, which could bring hotter, drier weather.
El Nino, characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, is associated with extreme weather phenomena, from tropical cyclones to intense rainfall and prolonged droughts.
The World Meteorological Organization said last month the weather pattern had emerged in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said in a release it was maintaining a weather alert that it said implied a 70% chance of the phenomenon occurring.
“When El Nino Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Nino event has developed around 70% of the time,” it said.
El Nino typically suppresses rain in eastern Australia, which poses a risk to the region’s wheat crop.
Garuda Indonesia Plans Flight Test With Palm-Based Jet Fuel
Garuda Indonesia plans for ground test and flight test using palm-based jet fuel after completing static trial on CFM56-7B machine used in its B737-800 NG fleet, it says in a statement on Tuesday.
Trial uses Pertamina’s jet fuel known as J2.4, which contains 2.4% of Refined Bleached Deodorized Palm Kernel Oil
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