Global Ag News For April 21.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina truckers’ strikes at two ports cause $450 million hit, chamber says

Truckers’ strikes at two ports in Argentina this month prevented around $450 million in grains shipments from entering the country, the nation’s ports chamber said on Monday.

A small group of truckers continue to paralyze shipments out of the Quequen port, while operations at the Bahia Blanca port have since normalized, the chamber said in a post on X.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 0.42.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 8 1/2 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal down $5.60; Soyoil up 1.73.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 19 1/2 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 8 3/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $7.30; Soyoil up 0.84.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 18.1% in SRW, up 23.7% in HRW, up 14.0% in HRS; Corn is up 2.6%; Soybeans up 13.8%; Soymeal up 10.6%; Soyoil up 45.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 26) Soybeans up 63 yuan; Soymeal up 16; Soyoil up 97; Palm oil up 207; Corn up 23 — Malaysian Palm is up 63.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 63 ringgit (+1.40%) at 4561.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 452 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,516 Soyoil; 187 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 20 were: SRW Wheat down 6,458 contracts, HRW Wheat down 956, Corn down 2,561, Soybeans down 5,075, Soymeal down 240, Soyoil up 10,133.

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 21 APRIL 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: According to the recent NOAA/CPC soil moisture data update, deficits are high in the Southeast U.S. and the southern crop areas of Midwest
• SOUTH AMERICA: The latest forecasts confirm persistent heat and dryness over the next 10 days across the sugarcane areas of South-Central Brazil
• EAST ASIA: Increasingly active conditions are expected in Southeast China at the end April, posing the risks of flooding in local crop areas
• BLACK SEA: Severe ground frost warnings have been issued for most crop areas of Ukraine, posing a potential threat to early-sown spring crops and winter wheat
• TROPICS: According to our latest Hurricane season update, the upcoming season in the Atlantic is likely to be relatively quiet

 

Northern Plains: Though a few warm days are in the forecast early this week, a system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing through scattered showers but also some colder air. Accumulating snow will be possible with that system, especially in Montana. That cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature.

Central/Southern Plains: Though it will be warmer early this week, a front will move through on Thursday and bring in some more cold air that is forecast to last into early May. Some showers will move through with the front, but will miss drier areas in the west. A better chance for precipitation comes with another system moving through on Sunday. Though it will be brief, precipitation may be widespread and cover some of the dry areas in the west. However, deficits and drought are increasing and becoming a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost that could be a concern.

Midwest: After several warmer days this week, another front will move through on Thursday and Friday, producing scattered showers, but also bringing in some colder air, at least to the west. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday, with widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cold air through the region. Western areas may see drought, especially the northwest, while it is more uncertain farther east. The colder forecast may slow down planting intentions, however, as the colder regime will stick around into early May.

Delta: Drier weather is expected most of the week, with a front moving through on Friday into Saturday that could bring through some needed showers. Another front should do something similar for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Despite this, widespread heavy rain that the region needs is not in the forecast going into early May.

Canadian Prairies: After a few warm days, another system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, creating widespread precipitation, but as a mix of rain and heavy snow, which will linger around the region into the weekend. The system will also bring through another round of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows seem all but certain at this point, unless models make drastic changes to the forecast.

Brazil: Spotty showers continue this week. A front will move into the far south this week, stalling and producing showers for Rio Grande do Sul. The rest of central Brazil will be drier and hotter this week, unfavorable for safrinha corn. The wet season rains have been shutting down early and the country will look to fronts to bring through showers from now on. Mato Grosso may get lucky over the next couple of weeks, but the prospects are not good elsewhere.

Argentina: A system moved in on Sunday and will linger through Tuesday, producing scattered showers. Crops continue to mature and the rainfall is becoming less and less important with each passing day. It may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest.

Europe: A system moved through Europe over the weekend and continues showers in the east on Monday and Tuesday, which has hit some of the drier areas in the northeast with some needed precipitation, but not many. The system is bringing in some colder air for eastern areas, and occasional showers will move through as well. Though it won’t be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take the scattered showers.

 

The player sheet for 4/20 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,500 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) issued an international tender to purchase up to 10,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is Tuesday, April 21. The tender was issued by the NOFI unit NH Feed, traders said.
• CORN TENDER PASSED: A Tunisian state grains agency is believed to have rejected offers and made no purchase in an international tender seeking about 25,000 metric tons of animal feed, which closed on Friday, European traders said on Saturday. Prices were regarded as too high. The lowest price offered was believed to have been $266.65 a ton cost and freight included (c&f), submitted by trading house Ameropa.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is April 21.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is April 21.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 105,950 tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is April 23.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase about 20,000 tons of rice sourced from the United States and Vietnam, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is April 28. Results of the tender may not be known for some weeks after price submissions, traders said.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Winter Wheat Crop 30% Good/Excellent

Highlights from the report:

• Winter wheat 30% G/E vs 34% last week, and 45% a year ago
• Corn planted 11% vs 5% last week, and 11% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 12% vs 6% last week, and 7% a year ago
• Spring wheat planted 12% vs 6% last week, and 16% a year ago
• Cotton planted 11% vs 7% last week, and 10% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.669m Tons of Corn for Export, 749k of Soybeans

In week ending April 16, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 518k tons vs 272k the previous wk, 510k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,669k tons vs 1,622k the previous wk, 1,726k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 749k tons vs 739k the previous wk, 560k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: April 16

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending April 16 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 446k tons of the 749k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soy Harvest 92% Done as of April 16: AgRural

Compares with 87% a week earlier and 94% a year before, consultancy firm AgRural says in emailed report

• Winter corn crop develops well, especially in Mato Grosso, AgRural says
  • “With a good portion of the crops already in the grain-filling stage, the favorable weather conditions so far fuel expectations of a bumper crop”
• AgRural says that this is the last weekly report for the soybean harvest period and the initial planting/development of the winter corn crop
  • Weekly releases will resume at the turn of May to June, with the start of the winter crop harvest

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soy Output Estimate Raised to 178.11M t: Safras

Compares with previous estimate of 177.72m tons, consulting firm Safras & Mercado says in emailed report.

• New estimate represents an increase of 3.7% over 2024/25 season
• Planted area is seen increasing 1.8%, to 48.48m hectares
• Soy exports forecast was kept at 105m tons in 2026, compared to 108.2m tons in 2025
  • That would represent a 3% decrease y/y
• 2026 soy crushing seen at 61.8m tons, while for 2025 was 58.5m tons
• Estimate for total soy offer in 2026 is at 182.82m tons, with demand at 170.22m tons

 

India Approves Additional 2.5M Tons Wheat Exports

India has approved the export of an additional 2.5 million tons of wheat to help boost farmer remuneration, manage stock and prevent distress sales during the peak arrival season, according to a statement from the country’s consumer affairs and food ministry.

• Wheat acreage this year increased nearly 2% to 33.42 million hectares
  • Wheat production for 2025-26 is estimated at 120.2 million tons
• The latest approvals will take wheat export permissions to 5 million tons
• NOTE: In February, India Notifies 2.5 Million-Ton Quota for Wheat Exports

 

USDA attaché sees Argentina 2025/26 corn crop at 61 million T

A report released on Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s attaché in Argentina forecast the country’s 2025/26 corn harvest at 61 million metric tons, well above the USDA’s last official estimate of 52 million tons, citing a larger planted area.

The report, issued on Monday by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Buenos Aires, also projected Argentina’s 2026/27 corn production at 56.5 million tons.

Attache reports are not official USDA data. The USDA is scheduled to release updated official world crop production estimates for the 2025/26 marketing year, as well as its first official forecasts for 2026/27, in a monthly report on May 12.

Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production “is currently estimated at a record 61 million tons, with most market analysts and brokers estimating a range of 58–65 million tons. As the harvest advances, most sources concur that planted area is larger than previously projected,” the attaché’s report said.

The report projected Argentine corn exports for 2025/26 at 41 million tons, above the USDA’s last official estimate, released on April 9, of 37 million tons. The attache forecast 2026/27 corn exports at 39.5 million tons.

 

Indonesia Consumed 3.9M Kiloliters Biodiesel as of April 13

Indonesia’s consumption of palm-based biofuel was at 3.9 million kiloliters as of April 13, according to data from the energy and mineral resources ministry.

• That’s almost a quarter of this year’s allocation of 15.65 million kiloliters under the existing B40 biodiesel mandate
• Govt targets initial implementation of B50 in July for all sectors, with transition period expected to last about three months, according to a factsheet provided by the ministry
• Govt is still calculating demand for domestic gasoil and making sure how much additional volumes can be supplied by each biofuel producer, said Eniya Listiani Dewi, director general for new and renewable energy at the energy ministry
  • Authorities will take into account production capacity, biodiesel demand, global conditions and domestic needs in deciding the volume needed for biofuel blending, according to the ministry factsheet
• B50 is expected to increase palm oil’s added value and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 46.72 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2026, up from the initial target of 41.53 million tons, it added
• Govt aims to complete road tests for B50 blends for automotive sector by June
  • Trials for other sectors, including heavy equipment, agriculture, railways, maritime transport, and power generation, will be completed gradually through December

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Exports Rise to 3.3m Tons in Feb.: Gapki

Exports rise from 3.08m tons in January, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association or Gapki.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Lower production since 2020 keeps prices firm

Cepea, 20 – A potential decline in wheat production in 2026 is keeping domestic prices firm, with output expected to fall to its lowest level since 2020.

According to data from Conab, the wheat area may total 2.22 million hectares in 2026, down 9.2% in relation to 2025. The average productivity is estimated at 2,979 kilos per hectare (-7.5%), which can result in production of 6.6 million tons, 16% smaller than in the crop before.

This scenario reflects low profitability in recent harvests amid climate uncertainty and trading risks.

2026 initial stocks are estimated at 2.314 million tons by July 31, down 57.3% compared to the year before. Imports are likely to reach 6.65 million tons (-2.5%), leading total supply to 15.58 million tons, for a decrease of 3.6% in one year.

The domestic consumption is projected at 11.8 million tons between August 2026 and July 2027 (-0.8%), while exports are likely to increase 4.7%, to 2.052 million tons. Therefore, ending stocks may drop to 1.73 million tons by July 2027, down 25.2% against the season before.

Between April 10 and 17, in the wholesale market, prices rose by 2.13% in São Paulo, 2.56% in Paraná and 5.39% in Rio Grande do Sul, but declined by 0.11% in Santa Catarina. Prices paid to wheat farmers increased by 0.11% in PR, 1.41% in SC and 1.68% in RS. The US dollar decreased by 0.52% against Real in the same comparison, closing at BRL 4.983 on April 17.

 

UAE’s Fertiglobe Says ‘Toppy’ Nitrogen Prices May Rise More (2)

Nitrogen fertilizer prices, almost double what they were before the Iran war, may climb further as vital supplies remain locked up in the Persian Gulf, according to one of the world’s biggest exporters of the crop nutrient.

“Prices are already quite ‘toppy,’ but if the situation continues, they could move higher,” Ahmed El-Hoshy, chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi’s Fertiglobe Plc, said in an interview. “It’s a very challenging situation for the farmers’ economics, and it could eventually translate into higher grain and food prices.”

The effective closure of the key waterway shut off about a third of the seaborne fertilizer trade and fueling fears of a food crisis. Nations have raced to source alternative supplies for farmers, but some top producers have capped exports and many buyers are having to pay premiums to compete for limited volumes.

Iran said Friday that ships could again pass through the strait, before abruptly stopping traffic less than 24 hours later as tensions escalated. As the conflict entered its eighth week, the US and Iran offered disparate views on the next stage, stoking uncertainty over whether the two sides will meet for peace talks.

The hit to fertilizer supply is particularly acute for nitrogen products such as urea and ammonia, which must be applied annually to maintain crop yields. Phosphate- and potash-based nutrients can remain in the soil, allowing farmers to skip applications for a year or two.

Urea exports from the Gulf slumped to about 300,000 tons in March from typical monthly volumes of 1.7 million tons, El-Hoshy said, citing Fertiglobe research. Those shipments largely came from Oman, he said.

Crop prices have yet to catch up with soaring costs for nutrients and fuels, meaning farmers can’t offset the spike in expenses. That’s in contrast to 2022 after Russia sent troops into Ukraine and crop prices jumped, reflecting both countries’ status as major grain producers.

Slower Buying

Grain prices did initially rise at the start of the Iran war, but they’ve since dropped back, increasing the risk that struggling farmers may stop applying fertilizer or shift away from crops such as corn, rice and wheat in favor of others that are less nitrogen-intensive, El-Hoshy said.

Fertiglobe is already seeing slower buying in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Australia. Brazil, a key market that’s entering its application season, is also vulnerable to the tightness in supply.

In the US, farmers need to get their fertilizer by mid-May to meet planting deadlines. Although some in the US and elsewhere purchased significant volumes before the war began, there’s uncertainty over how much demand remains — particularly in poorer countries more sensitive to rising prices — according to the executive.

Even when Hormuz opens again, it will take time for volumes to move and for shortages to ease.

“There are a lot of ships currently in the Strait of Hormuz just sitting there” as floating storage, El-Hoshy said. “It’s likely several hundred thousand tons.”

As many as 44 ships laden with fertilizer remain in the Persian Gulf, hesitant to cross, according to tanker data compiled by Kpler and Bloomberg. One vessel carrying urea — the Ruby — crossed with its tracking system turned off and re-appeared in the Gulf of Oman on April 18, tracking data shows.

Fertiglobe has been exploring alternative routes to transport its UAE output, including overland options, though volumes would likely be lower than those typically shipped by sea. The company is better positioned than many Gulf producers as its Abu Dhabi sites are close to Oman’s east coast and the UAE’s Fujairah port.

Fertiglobe also has operations in Egypt and Algeria, which are still able to serve customers.

 

Comfortable global wheat supplies shape trade in a cautious geopolitical environment

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

Global wheat markets in the 2025/26 season broadly reflect comfortable supplies, shaped by strong availability across major exporting regions and tempered by elevated logistical and risk‑related costs. Geopolitical tensions, especially those linked to the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict, have increased freight and insurance expenses, encouraging importers to prioritize secure supply chains, adopt more cautious procurement strategies, and draw selectively on existing stocks. While prices have shown modest firmness in recent weeks, they continue to reflect a well‑supplied global market, with trade flows adapting rather than contracting as buyers balance cost considerations against reliability and continuity of supply.

Across the major wheat‑exporting regions, the global competitive landscape continues to show clear divergence amid ample supplies and selective buyer caution driven by geopolitical risk. Russia maintains its position as the dominant supplier, with its 2025/26 full‑marketing‑year (July-June) export forecast raised to 44 million tons from 43 million tons. The upward revision reflects firm third‑quarter shipment activity, ample domestic supplies, and sustained price competitiveness. Government approval of an additional 5‑million‑ton export quota for wheat, meslin, barley, and corn through 30 June, on top of the existing 20‑million‑ton allocation, has further reinforced export availability.

Ukraine, in contrast, remains constrained by conflict‑related disruptions. Wheat exports totaled 10.2 million tons by April 9, down sharply from 13.4 million tons over the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Ongoing logistical constraints continue to limit export capacity, prompting a downward revision in the full‑season (July-June) export outlook to 13 million tons. The European Union has benefited from its largest wheat harvest in a decade, supporting a 9% year‑on‑year increase in cumulative exports. However, intensified competition from Black Sea and Southern Hemisphere suppliers has tempered prospects, leading to an 830,000‑ton reduction in the full‑year (July-June) forecast to 28.7 million tons.

North American exporters continue to post steady performance. USDA data show that cumulative U.S. wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (June–May) reached 21.5 million tons as of 16 April, up from 18.9 million tons a year earlier. Growth has been driven by strong demand from Latin America and Asia, underpinned by favorable trade arrangements with several Asian markets. Canada has also maintained solid momentum, with non‑durum wheat shipments rising 5% to 15.4 million tons and durum exports edging up to 3.99 million tons during the first 36 weeks of the August–July marketing year, according to Canadian Grains Commission.

Argentina and Australia have emerged as standout performers. In Argentina, export registrations continue to run well ahead of last year, supported by a record crop. DJVE registrations reached 12.66 million tons as of 8 April, compared with 7.08 million tons over the same period last season, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Competitively priced, lower‑protein wheat has sustained demand from Asian feed markets. Australia has also recorded strong gains, with shipments up 26% in the first five months of the October–September marketing year. Both origins have benefited from trade routes that remain largely insulated from current geopolitical disruptions.

 

 

 

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