Funds Have Near Record Short Futures Position

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

 

Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. CRB commodity index gapped lower. Bitcoin is over 107,000. US Fed is expected to lower rates 25 basis points Wednesday but could pause in 2025 if inflation rates remain elevated.

 

SOYBEANS

SH is near 9.95. Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. Palmoil followed lower soyoil futures. Rains are forecast for most of Brazil and N 2/3 Argentina. Front loaded US soybean export commit and near record crush offers support. Funds have a near record short futures position. US Nov NOPA soybean crush was 193.1 mil bu vs 196.7 expected and 189.0 ly. US soybean exports are up 19 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 8. Matif rapeseed futures were lower on talk of better river logistics. One crop scout est Brazil soybean crop at 170 mmt and Argentina 55 mmt, Argentina is down 2 mmt due to lower planted acres.

 

CORN

CH is near 4.46. Dalian corn futures were lower. Front loaded US corn export commit and strong ethanol production offers support. Increase in Brazil ethanol use and drop in EU quality also offers support to corn prices. Potential for record 2025 global supply offers strong resistance. US corn exports are up 31 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 8 pct. Ukraine seeing more logistics problems due to Russia attacks on rail and energy. Same crop scout est Brazil corn at 125 mmt and Argentina 49 mmt. Argentina is up 1 mmt due to higher planted acres.

 

WHEAT

WH is near 5.49. KWH is near 5.58. MWH is near 5.98. A strong US Dollar, Russia suspending sales to Syria, and S Hemisphere arrivals supports the record fund short. But 2025 exports from the EU/Russia could be 15 mmt below last year, and Indian domestic prices hit new highs Saidia Arabia bot 804 mt of wheat. US wheat exports are up 29 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 20. Matif wheat was higher as market tries to squeeze out record funds short.

 

 

 

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