MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. AI Managed funds continue to control grain price movement. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher and up against 50 DMA resistance. CBOT will close early Jan 9 in observance of President Carter funeral. Jan 9 US export sales will be delayed until Jan 10.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.06. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were lower. N and C Brazil weather remains favorable for crops. StoneX est Brazil crop at 171 mmt. Argentina weather is dry and warmer. US Nov crush was 210 mil bu vs 200 ly. Soybean export sales are est at 500-1,200 mt vs 978 last week. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are est at 3,230 mil bu vs 3,000 ly. US 2024 crop should stay near 4,460 mil bu. US 2024/25 carryout could increase to 480 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 470. SH resistance is near 10.19 with support 10.00.
CORN
CH is near 4.58. Dalian corn futures were lower. Weekly US ethanol production was up 6 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 2 pct vs last week. Margins are negative but crusher still crush using lower price harvest corn. Weekly US export sales are est at 800-1,400 mt vs 1,711 last week. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US corn stocks are est at 12,105 mil bu vs 12,171 ly. US 2024 crop should stay near USDA 15,143. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 1,525 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 1,738. CH resistance is now 4.60.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.45. KWH is near 5.51. MWH is near 5.89. Recent surge in US Dollar offered resistance to wheat futures. US and EU temps turn colder. Lower Russia’s grain export quota could offer support. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-500 mt vs 612 last week. Dec 1 US wheat stocks are est at 1,538 mil bu vs 1,421 ly. US 2024/25 carryout should remain at 795 mil bu. SRW 224 VS 274 ly. HRW 630 vs 508 ly. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures could be in a 5.30-5.85 range. According to Black Silo Consulting , World futures market are short a record 300,000 contracts (30 mmt ).
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