Export Sales Report This Morning

COTTON

March Cotton is higher this morning after reversing from a three-week low yesterday, with traders indicating that buyers have responded to the low prices. The rally in crude oil to its highest level since November 25 may have also lent support to cotton on ideas that higher oil prices increase the cost of man-made fibers. The market may find support from the weekly export sales report this morning if it shows a resumption of a strong buying trend from November. Last week’s report showed net sales of 176,765 bales for the week ending November 28, which was a disappointment after two weeks of strong sales of more than 300,000 bales. Cumulative sales had reached 65% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus a five year average of 73% for this point in the marketing year.

SUGAR

We look for the sugar market to find direction from the UNICA report on Brazilian Center-South sugar production for the second half of November, which is due out later today. The previous report, for the first half of November,  showed production falling to 898,000 metric tons from 1.782 million in the second half of October and 2.199 million for the same period last year. Cumulative production for the 2024/25 season had reached 38.274 million tons, which was down 3% from the same period in 2023/24. Cumulative production slipped below year-ago levels for the first time since the marketing year began, as the dry conditions this year, which brought a quick start to the harvest season, has pulled cane yields down. There has also been a shift to more ethanol production as opposed to sugar. These same dry conditions have raised concerns about the  upcoming crop, especially after wildfires hit cane fields in September, but the return of the rains starting in in October has mitigated some of those concerns.

COCOA

March Cocoa is traded inside the range of the previous two sessions overnight, as the market appeared to be consolidating its recent gains. Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind in November grind was up 16.1% from a year ago at 60,694 metric tons, according to the exporter association GEPEX. The total grind since the 2024/25 season began in October has reached 199,777 tons, up 1.6% from the same point last season. Ivory coast has a total grinding capacity of 712,000 tons per year and vies with Netherlands to be the top grinder in the world. West Africa received no rain over the last 24 hours, which is not unusual considering they are in the dry season. However, the lack of rain over the past month has weighed on production expectations going forward. ICE exchange stocks fell another 17,7321 bags yesterday to 1.447 million, which is the lowest since December 2023.

COFFEE

March Coffee held near the bottom of yesterday’s range overnight, after a steep selloff from all-time highs over the past couple of sessions. Some traders are apparently viewing Volcafe’s 11-milllion-bag cut in their Brazilian 2024/25 production forecast this week to 34.4 million was overstated. Other forecasts are more in the range of 38-42 million bags. Production forecasts have declined and prices have soared  on reports of poor cherry setting due to the drought. JD Peet’s, one of the world’s largest coffee companies said it will raise coffee product prices in Brazil by an average of 30% next year, and other major roasters are following suit. Trade in Vietnam has remained quiet with farmers reluctant to sell if they think prices will go higher. This week, the USDA attaché in Hanoi raised the forecast Vietnam’s 2024/25 crop to 30.1 million bags from 29.0 million in October. This is up from 27.5 million for last year.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.