Dry SA Helping US Demand

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are higher. SX is up 7 cents and near 13.04. SMZ is near 405.4BOZ is near 55.54. CZ is up 2 cents and near 4.91. WZ is up 6 cents and near 5.76. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 6.70. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 7.33. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Crude is sharply higher. China economic data better but property issues has China equities lower. Russia missile strikes hit Ukraine.

Soybean futures are higher. North Brazil forecast is dry for the rest of October. Long range Argentina forecast adds needed rains. US Sep NOPA soybean crush was a record 165.5 mil bu. US soyoil stocks were down to 1,108 mil lbs and 9 year low. Dalian soymeal and soyoil futures were higher. Soybeans were lower and 11 month low. There may have been new technical buying above 400.5 SMZ. SMZ-SMH spread moved up to +7.00. SX-SF spread widened to -20. Continued dry SA weather is helping demand for US soymeal. This improved board soybean crush margins. S&P Global estimated US 2024 soybean acres at 86.0 vs 83.6 this year.

Corn futures are higher. North and central Brazil remains dry. Argentina forecast adds needed rains. US ethanol margins remain positive. US farmer remains slow seller of corn. Resistance is still near 5.10-5.20 due to slow demand for US exports. China Sep corn imports were up 7 pct vs ly. Jan-Sep imports are up 10 pct vs ly. Dalian corn futures dropped to new 5 month low. S&P Global estimated US 2024 corn acres near 92.5 mil vs 94.8 this year.

Wheat futures are higher and trying to take back Mondays losses. There are unconfirmed rumors of China interest in US HRW/HRS wheat combo’s. India domestic wheat prices are near 8 month high. Argentina export forecast is dropping below USDA guess. S&P Global estimated US 2024 all wheat acres near 48.7 mil vs 49.5 this year. HRW is est near 25.4 vs 25.6, SRW 7.0 vs 7.3 and HRS 10.3 vs 10.5.

 

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