COTTON
March Cotton was near unchanged overnight but close to Friday’s three-month low. The market felt pressure on Friday from a disappointing export sales report, as well as a declines in the stock market and crude oil. The export sales report showed US cotton sales for the week ending November 7 at 153,316 bales for the 2024/25 (current) marketing year and 968 for 2025/26 for a total of 154,284. This was down from 229,039 the previous week and the lowest since October 3. It also broke a four-week streak of increasing sales. Cumulative sales for 2024/25 have reached 6.046 million bales, down from 7.262 million at this time last year and below the five-year average of 8.792 million. This is the lowest for this point in the season since 2015. Sales have reached 57% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 68% for this point in the marketing year. The weather looks mostly benign maybe slightly bearish for the cotton market. Rain in West Texas could damage some of the remaining cotton in the fields, but harvest is about complete in the Delta and drier conditions in the southeast could help harvest advance. One area of the world that had been a concern was Australia, but World Weather Service says rain in the coming week to ten days in Australia’s eastern dryland crop region of New South Wales and Queensland will improve dryland planting, emergence and establishment conditions.
SUGAR
March Sugar extended its recovery rally from a two month low last Thursday. Recent rainfall in Brazil has eased concerns about the upcoming crop, but the long hot and dry spell this year and extensive wildfires this past September may still limit 2025 production. The rains could also slow harvest for the remainder of 2024, which usually winds down in late November or early December. The recent UNICA report showed center south production falling off sharply in the second half of October, which was expected. Total production since the market year began in April is running about even with a year ago. China imported 540,000 metric tons of sugar in October, down 42% from the same period last year. Their cumulative imports for 2024 have reached 3.42 million tons, up 12.6% from last year.
COCOA
March Cocoa is lower this morning, having given back a portion of last week’s gains. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals totaled 94,000 metric tons for the week ending November 17, up from 90,000 the previous week and the highest since January 15, 2023. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began on October 1 have reached 549,000 tons, up from 417,000 at this point last year. There was talk last week that the arrivals pace could slow down on ideas that heavy rains in October had damaged the crop, but in the meantime arrivals have been very strong. Last week there was a report that the Coffee and Cocoa Council in Ivory Coast had reduced its cocoa export contracts for the 2024/25 season by 40%, which sparked concerns that their crop was not nearly as strong as previously believed. A BMI analyst on Friday cited below average rainfall and above average temperatures in areas of Ghana and Nigeria. World Weather Service reported that showers and thunderstorms occurred sporadically from southern Ivory Coast through southern Ghana to coastal areas of Nigeria and a few locations in southern Cameroon Friday through Sunday afternoon. Resulting rainfall was mostly light with a few localized moderate amounts.
COFFEE
March Coffee extended its rally overnight to trade to a new contract high for the third straight session. Despite the arrival of seasonal rainfall in Brazil, there are still concerns that the extended drought this year has left trees lacking the energy to produce a strong crop in 2025. Last week, a commercial broker reported strong leaf growth but a lack of cherries on the trees. A strong export report out of Brazil for October also boosted demand ideas last week. Tropical Storm Sara produced more than 40 inches of rain in northern Honduras, causing horrific flooding. World Weather Service said the impact on trees and cherries should have been relatively low, but access into production areas may be limited for a while. London Robusta Coffee is higher this morning but well short of its contract highs from September. Vietnam will experience limited rain for a while, which could slow harvest. Indonesia and Malaysia will receive frequent rain of significance in the next ten days, maintaining the improving trend in Java and southern Sumatra soil moisture. There were concerns about dry conditions earlier this fall.
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