Dec NOPA Soybean Crush Was a Record

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are lower. US stocks are unch. US inflation data supported rally in stocks. US Dollar is unch near 109. Crude is slightly lower and near $78. Israel may be delaying ceasefire deal. Canada has a list of 105 billion US imports they could impose tariffs if necessary.

SOYBEANS

SH is near 10.29. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil were steady. Palmoil was lower. Argentina weather is dry and warmer but rains are forecast starting Monday. SH-SK spread is near -13. US river levels are dropping and now ice is forming. Next weeks US Midwest temps will be colder. Brazil farmer selling slowed due to higher Real. Dec NOPA soybean crush was a record 206.6 mil bu vs 195.3 ly. Soyoil stocks are est at 1,236 mil lbs vs 1,360 ly. US soybean crush capacity has increased to satisfy projected increase in soyoil use for fuel. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 300-800 mt vs 288 last week. There is talk that China bot 20-30 Brazil soybean cargoes and 5-8 US PNW. Key now is SA weather.

CORN

CH is near 4.76. CH has rallied from August on increase demand and is back near March-June, 2024 4.80 support. Dalian corn futures were steady. Argentina forecast has showers starting Monday. Rosario dropped Argentina corn crop 2 mmt to 48. CH-CK spread is near -9. US river levels are dropping with ice forming. Next weeks US Midwest temps will be colder. SA farmers slowed cash sales due to higher Real. US is price competitive to buyers in nearby. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 500-1,000 mt vs 444 last week. Weekly US ethanol production was up 4 pct vs ly. Some feel CH could be in a 4.60-4.80 trading range until more is known about SA weather/crop size.

WHEAT

WH is near 5.41. KWH is near 5.50. MWH is near 5.83. Cold US temps should not impact US winter wheat. Talk of higher north hemisphere 2025 crops limits new buying. Africa imports could slow due to higher USD. KWH-WH spread near 9 vs 20 before USDA report. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 150-400 mt vs 111 last week. Argentina Dec and Jan wheat exports are lower than expected. Ukraine export to date are near 10.4 mmt vs 8.2 ly.

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