Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil was steady to slightly lower early Friday but inside Thursday’s range. The market traded to its highest level since April 7 on Thursday but failed to close the gap from the open on the 8th. The chances of reopening The Strait of Hormuz took another step backward on the news Iran had captured two cargo ships. This was driven home when Iran released footage of commandos boarding a ship in the strait of Hormuz. Some analysts have suggested that the ceasefire is looking like a preparatory phase a resumption of the conflict. Late news that Iran’s foreign minister is heading to Pakistan for peace talks add grease to the roller coaster.
PRODUCTS
A story in Reuters pointed out that Asian refining activity likely to fall in April and May as crude imports hit a 10-year low. Refiners are having to process lighter grades (including from the US), which limits diesel and jet fuel output relative gasoline. Asia accounts for 37% of global refining output and ordinarily sources two-thirds of its crude from the Middle East. July RBOB was lower early Friday but inside Thursday’s range-up action.
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas fell to new lows for the move on Thursday on a bearish EIA storage report, and its extended those losses into Friday. The nearby contract has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024. The EIA report showed storage for the week ending April 17 at 2,063 bcf, +103 bcf from 1,960 the previous week. This was above the average trade expectation of +94 and at the upper end of the range of expectations from +89 to +103.
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