Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil bounced off a six-session low early Wednesday and to higher on the day. The market was under pressure early on indications from the Trump Administration that peace negotiations would resume in Pakistan this week following disappointing results over the weekend. However, the US military saying its blockade had completely halted trade going into and out of Iran by sea may have countered some of that optimism. On the other hand, others view the blockade as boosting the US negotiating position going into the next meetings. The US will not renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week, and it let a similar waiver on sanctions on Russian oil expire over the weekend. The strong performance in the US stock market and the fact that oil prices did not surge to new highs in the wake of the lack of progress in the peace talks over the weekend has raised talk that investors think the Iran war is basically over, and a key reversal on the weekly chart last week adds to ideas that a top may be in.
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas was holding above Tuesday’s low early Wednesday but just barely. Mild weather in the US has the trade expecting another larger than normal injection into US supply this week. For the EIA gas storage report on Thursday, the early Reuters poll expectations calling a net injection of 49 to 65 billion cubic feet for the week ending April 10. The five-year average change is +28 bcf (range +15 to 57). LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has risen to 110.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd in March and a record 110.7 bcfd in December.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
ADM Named to FORTUNE’s Most Admired Company List
January 23, 2026
