Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is unchanged and near 13.86. SMK is near 428.2. BOK is near 46.84. CK is down 1 cent and near 5.48. WK is down 8 cents and near 6.52. KWK is down 7 cents and near 6.36. Bitter US cold temps continues to push energy prices higher. Some feel cold could increase fuel and feed demand and slow domestic logistics. So far record cold temps may not have reduced US winter wheat crop outlook. USDA Outlook Forum Friday. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher.
Chinese Ag futures on holiday from Feb. 11 to 17 (Thursday to Wednesday) for the celebration of Chinese Spring Festival. Resumes on Feb. 18 (Thursday). Malaysian palm oil prices were up 99 ringgit at 3,634 (basis May) on costlier soyoil, supply concerns, weaker ringgit.
Net drying is expected across a majority of Argentina through next Tuesday. Crop stress is unlikely to become very serious in the first week of the outlook; however, greater rain will be needed in the second week. Conditions in much of Brazil will continue to be favorable. Some pockets in the south may become a little drier than preferred in the next seven days and some pockets in the north a little wetter than preferred. Drying in the south over the next 5 to 7 days will be beneficial though for soybean maturation and harvesting, and the planting of second season crops.
MG Brazil corn plantings only 21 pct versus 63 average. 40 pct of Argentina corn crop is pollinating in dry weather. Brazil soybean vessels line up is now near 15 mmt with only 1.3 mmt loaded in Feb so far. 33 pct of Brazil soybean crop is setting pods versus 51 average.
All Wheat sales running down 2% (down 1% last week) with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year, Corn up 84% (up 85% a week ago); USDA up 43%, Soybeans up 77% (up 80% a week ago); USDA up 33%
U.S. soybean processors recorded their second-largest monthly crush on record in January, the latest in a string of historically active months of soy processing crushed 184.654 million bushels of soybeans last month, up from 183.159 million bushels in December and 176.940 million bushels in January 2020.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 11,000 SRW Wheat; bought 19,000 Corn; net bought 10,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 7,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 19,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 340,000 Corn; net long 167,000 Soybeans; net long 63,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 114,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 7,900 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,700; Corn down 20,500; Soybeans down 16,200 contracts; Soymeal down 3,200 lots, and; Soyoil down 725.
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