Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2024 Results
April 30, 2024
by Alan Bush,
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Global equity markets are beginning the new week on an upbeat note.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Sunday made positive comments about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy.
Prices are higher despite lower crude oil prices.
The April Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey will be released at 9:30 central time. Last month the survey was negative 35.3.
Stock index futures are performing well for the news.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar slipped toward the lower end of its two-week trading range as it fell under an eight-day uptrend line.
Longs may be liquidating ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting just in case the tone of the FOMC is more accommodative. The two-day FOMC meeting begins tomorrow.
European Central Bank will hold its policy meeting on Thursday.
The Bank of Japan held its one-day meeting today instead of the usual two, and as was expected, policymakers lifted the cap on Japanese government bond purchases, pledging to buy an unlimited amount of bonds to support the economy. The BOJ also will boost its purchases of commercial paper and bank loans.
Japan’s central bank kept its deposit rate at -0.1% and its 10-year yield target around 0%.
The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher despite lower crude oil prices.
In the longer-term analysis there are no major disparities in interest rate differential expectations in the currency markets with all the major central banks adding more accommodation to their banking systems in one form or another.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Prices are lower, as flight to quality longs are liquidated in light of higher stock index futures.
Futures are lower even though there is speculation that the FOMC could offer more stimulus this week.
The Treasury will auction five-year notes today.
The 30-year Treasury bond futures remain in a broadly based congestion pattern, as the main fundamental influences affecting the long end of the curve are offsetting.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
