Brazil Arabica Harvest Behind Schedule

COFFEE

July Coffee was lower early Friday but inside Thursday’s range. Safras & Mercoado said Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest had reached 16% of the planted area as of May 27 versus 20% last year and the five-year average. They added that harvesting has advance slightly after being delays by rain last week. The rains slowed ripening as well. The arabica harvest was 12% complete versus 14% last year and on average, while the robusta harvest was 24%, versus 31% last year and a five-year average of 30%. Tight near-term supplies have been supporting the market in the face of expectations for a bumper harvest.

COTTON

December Cotton near unchanged early Friday after poking above Thursday’s high. The market may have gotten oversold on the rain theme this week. World Weather Inc. said on Thursday that West Texas cotton areas will get periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next ten days, although resulting rainfall is expected to be sporadic and light for a little while. Greater rainfall may evolve next week. Drought conditions in the US cotton belt are gradually improving thanks to the recent rains.

COCOA

July Cocoa was higher early Friday but inside Thursday’s range following a two-day selloff from a two week high. The market traded above the 21-day moving average on Tuesday, and it hit tested and held above that line Thursday and so far today. West African weather continues to be supportive for a strong mid-crop. World Weather Inc. expects showers and thunderstorms to occur throughout west-central Africa during the next week with sufficient rain to maintain cocoa development. This follows a period of drier than normal conditions last week that may have inspired the rally on Tuesday and Wednesday. Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s cocoa-bean exports totaled 14,921 metric tons in April, versus 18,561 tons a year earlier and 17% less than they exported in March. A representative of a Swiss-based trading company blamed the decline on low international demand.

SUGAR

July Sugar was higher early Friday, rebounding from the steep selloff Wednesday and Thursday that came in the wake of a bearish production report out of Brazil. News that the Indian government has lowered its monsoon rain forecast to 90% of a Long Period Average from an April forecast of 92% may have triggered some of the buying. If the forecast proves true, it would make it the weakest monsoon since 2015, when El Nino reduced rainfall to 87% of the LPA. The trade is watching the monsoon development for its potential effects on Indian cane production

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