MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Gold is lower. Crude is higher. China banned key metals used for US military chips, semi-conductors, fiber optics, solar cells and EV batteries. China produces 60 pct of World rare earths and processes 90 pct. S Korea martial law. China, Germany, France, Nigeria and Russia economies are struggling. There are new US sanctions against Iran.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.89. Dalian soybean and soymeal prices were lower. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. Rains are in C and S Brazil. Argentina is dry. Brazil soybean export prices were lower on drop in China demand and favorable weather. One crop watcher suggested best South America total soybean crop estimate could be 253 mmt vs 219 ly. India forecaster suggest Dec-Feb temps above normal which could stress their rapeseed crop. Soyoil futures mixed with prices below palmoil supportive but lower Argentina prices and fact Biden is delay 45Z tax credit offers resistance.
CORN
CH is near 4.31. CH could be in a 4.20-4.40 range. CH-CK firmed into -5.5. This suggest spreads are trying to be the tool to increase US elevator selling to fill pipeline. Dalian corn futures were lower and made new contract lows. One crop watcher suggested best South America corn crop could be 189 mmt vs 177 ly. Brazil corn futures though were lower looking for demand. South Africa futures continued higher. China import corn demand is down which suggest US and Brazil demand will be domestic use and US exports to Mexico, EU and non-China Asia buyers.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.44. KWH is near 5.38. MWH is near 5.88. MWH-MWK spread into -6 carry. Black Sea wheat prices are dropping looking for demand. India forecaster suggest Dec-Feb temps above normal which could stress their wheat crop .US wheat exports are up 32 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 17. Most of this due to higher demand for HRS. US HRW export basis dropped due to lower Argentina prices. World buyers remain on sideline with World crops looking mostly good. Egypt buying still and big unknown with Military now the buyer.
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