Bears Still Looking For Lower Soybean Futures

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

 

Happy Veterans Day. Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. Musk stock higher. Bitcoin is higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. GSI commodity Index is lower due to lower energy and metal prices. Higher US labor wages could reduce Fed rate cuts. Trump policy could be negative energy and grains.

 

SOYBEANS

SH is near 10.50. BOH is near 49 cents. Dalian soymeal futures were higher. Palmoil is sharply higher. USDA est US 2024 soybean crop at 4,461 mil bu vs USDA Oct est of 4,582. USDA dropped yield 1.4 to 51.7. Yields dropped MO,WI,IA,KY,MN, SD and TN. USDA est 2024/25 carryout at 470 vs 550. USDA dropped US crush 15 mil bu and exports 25. Some privates has exports down 75 mil bu, and final yield closer to 52.3. Bears are still looking for lower soybean futures due to record high South America supplies and lower China demand for US soybeans. USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans to unknown and 107 mt to China.

 

CORN

CH is near 4.44. Dalian corn futures were lower. Some look for nearby corn futures are near key resistance. USDA est US 2024 corn crop at 15,143 mil bu vs USDA Oct est of 15,203. USDA est 2024/25 carryout at 1,938 vs USDA 1,999. South America weather remains favorable for crops. Futures have rallied on a need to buy cash corn for increase US export and ethanol demand. USDA announced 200 mt US corn to unknown. Spain and Mexico were big buyers of US corn before US election.

 

WHEAT

WH is near 5.79. KWH is near 5.67. MWH is near 6.11. Good rains have fallen across US HRW plains. USDA est 2024/25 carryout at 815 vs USDA 812. Normal 2025 north hemisphere wheat crops could offer long term resistance. World wheat buyers and sellers watching for changes in US export policy. US and EU prices may be trying to find export demand. Australia and Argentina harvest offers resistance. Declining Russia supply offers support.

 

 

 

 

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