Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 7 cents and near 12.17. Overnight high was 12.26. SMK is near 346.2. BOK is near 49.03. CK is up 3 cents and near 4.42. WK is up 5 cents and near 5.50. KWK is up 5 cents and near 5.86. MWK is up 6 cents and near 6.61. US stocks are higher. US Dollar.is higher. Gold is sharply higher after dovish US Fed. Crude is slightly lower. GCI commodity index ready to make new highs for the move.
SK is near 12.16. Overnight high was 12.26. SX rallied over 12.00 for first time since January. Dalian soybean, soymeal soyoil and palmoil prices were higher. There was talk that both India and China may increase palmoil and soyoil buying to replenish reserves. Parts of Argentina saw heavy and potentially damaging rains which rallied soymeal and then soybeans. There was talk of China buying Argentina soybeans. USDA announced 120 mt US soybeans to unknown. First daily sales since Feb. Weekly US soybean sales are est at 250-800 mt vs 376 last week.
CK is near 4.42. Parts of Argentina saw heavy and potentially damaging rains which rallied corn, China imports are record mostly from Brazil. There is a 11 mt spread between Conab and US ests of Brazil corn crop. USDA March 28 acreage and stocks report is next key. Rains are forecast for US west Midwest. US corn sales are est at 800-1,400 mt vs 1,283 last week. Weekly US ethanol prod was up 5 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 1 pct vs last week.
WK is near 5.50. 2 mmt of wheat was offered for Egypt tender. This weighed on US futures, They bought one Bulgaria cargo and one Romania cargo. Snow, rain and cold temps is forecasted for US N plains. S plains remains dry. Recent drone attacks on Odessa port after Ukraine drone attacks on Russian oil refineries adds to price risk. Weekly US sales are est at -250-550 mt.
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