Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2025
March 25, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is slightly higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Market volatility could increase as US election nears. Brazil is getting rain. Argentina is getting rains. Rains are forecast for US Midwest and east plains. EU and Ukraine weather id dry.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 9.96. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. There were 97 soybean deliveries. Soybean futures continue to rally on short covering and higher World vegoil prices. Some est Brazil crop at record 169 mmt which should provide pressure to futures February forward. Brazil soybean export basis lower. Argentina rains are better. US Argentina Ag attache est crop at 52 mmt vs USDA est of 51, Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 1,600 -2,800 mt vs 2,151 last week. USDA announced 132 mt to unknown and 132 mt US soybeans to China.
CORN
CZ is near 4.11. Dalian corn futures were higher and 7 week high. S Korea bought 201 mt US corn. FOB price highest since July. Higher US water levels is offering resistance to domestic basis. Brazil corn futures are higher for 8th straight session and Real is at 3 month low. Some look for nearby corn futures in a range from 3.90-4.30. French and Ukraine weather is dry. US Midwest should see rains to help soils for 2025. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,800 -3,500 mt vs 3,602 last week. USDA announced 273 mt US corn to unknown.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.71. KWZ is near 5.72. MWZ is near 6.05. Russia prices remain low. USDA lower than expected rating of US winter wheat rallied futures. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures in a range from 5.50-6.00. Argentina prices near 7 month low due to favorable crop conditions. Australia futures were lower on good harvest yields. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300 -600 mt vs 532 last week. Funds sold 20k Matif wheat futures and are now short 140,000.
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