Bean Oil Under Pressure

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

 

Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Some profit taking is noted in grains. US President Trump will speak at Davos economic conference. President Trump is considering more sanctions and tariffs on Russia if they do not reach agreement to end the war.

 

oil

 

SOYBEANS

SH is near 10.54. SH remains overbought. Dalian soybean, soymeal were steady. Dalian palmoil and soyoil was lower. Drier weather could help advance early Brazil harvest. Rains are forecast next week. C and N Argentina could see rains later in week. Generation winter storm has slowed US gulf logistics. Brazil soybean basis softer on higher futures and delay in China unloading Brazil soybean vessels due to stricter customs restrictions. Trade still trying to evaluate China and US trade relations. BOH is under pressure due to concern over US policy on renewable fuel. This is helping soymeal despite higher supply.

CORN

CH is near 4.83. Dalian corn was higher. Drier weather may help Brazil corn planting. Falling ratings in Argentina and delayed plantings in Brazil has been supportive to corn.. Key could be global/Chinese demand. Trump now considering additional China tariffs. JFK Jr suggested banning HFCS for human consumption. US uses 1.3-1.4 billion bushels for HFCS. Some techies feel corn futures are neat top. Market is overbought. Last July funds were net short 353,000 corn futures. They are now long 309,000 and near record long. USDA announced 136 mt US corn to unknown.

WHEAT

WH is near 5.51. KWH is near 5.73. MWH is near 6.05. The bulls point to the fund short and multiple N Hemisphere potential weather problems while the bears note that all major origins demand could be lower. Final Russia and EU wheat could be key. US plains dry and cold.

 

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