MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude, coffee and cocoa are lower. Gold and Copper are higher. US stocks are lower overnight. US House has yet to pass stop gap bill to avoid shutdown.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.73. Dalian soybean, soyoil and soymeal futures were higher. Rains are forecast for most of Brazil. Argentina forecast is drier over next 2 weeks. Argentina crop is rated 66 pct G/E vs 37 ly. World vegoil prices are trying to find support near contract lows. US and Brazil are lowering soybean export prices to compete for nearby China demand. China Sino Grain were net buyers this week of 500 mt of US Mar-Apr soybeans. They may have bought 700 mt US Jan-Mar last week. USDA announced 227.5 mt US soybeans to unknown, 152.5 mt 24.25 and 75 mt 25/26. US soybean export commit is up 9.7 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 7.7. Season to date Canada canola exports are 4.2 mmt vs 2.3 ly.
CORN
CH is near 4.43. Dalian corn futures were lower. Increase in Brazil ethanol use and drop in EU quality offers support to corn prices. Potential for record 2025 global supply offers strong resistance. US corn export commit is up 29 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 8 pct. Higher Real slowed Brazil farmer selling. S Korea and other Asia buyers have been active buyers of US corn this week. China remains absent in corn import buying. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2 pct vs last week and 3 pct vs ly. Stocks were down 1 pct vs ly. Margins remain negative.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.36. KWH is near 5.48. MWH is near 5.94. Wheat futures are more of a follower than leader. A strong US Dollar, Russia suspending sales to Syria, and S Hemisphere arrivals offers resistance. But 2025 exports from the EU/Russia could be 15 mmt below last year, and Indian domestic prices hit new highs offers support. US wheat export commit is up 9 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 20 pct. Still warm and dry in US plains. US SRW areas are wet. US N plains are cold. EU is wet. Black Sea is mostly dry.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024