Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2024 Results
April 30, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 1 cent and near 13.41. SMZ is near 396.0. BOZ is near 61.53. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.82. WZ is up 1 cent and near 6.29. KWZ is up 1 cent and near 7.47. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 7.92. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. It is hot here in Chicago.
Soybean futures are lower. Pro Farmer tour found IN soybean pod count at 1,309 and highest since 2016 and vs vs 1,166 ly and 1,229 3 year average. NE soybean pos count is 1,160 vs 1,063 ly and 1,196 3 year average. Tour will be in IA and IL today. Pod counts on the Pro Farmer crop tour are favorable, but will need rain to achieve yield potential. Soyoil gave up a full week’s gains as NYMEX crude fell back below $80. Losses in meal were more measured but board crush margins fell a full 20¢ with oil-share falling to a 1-week low. Overnight, soybeans are lower with meal higher and oil lower.
Corn futures are higher Pro Farmer tour found IN corn yield at 180.9 vs 177.8 ly and 183.7 3 year average. NE corn yield is 167.4 vs 158,5 ly and 172.0 3 year average. Tour will be in IA and IL today. Corn futures are trying to hold 4.80 support. Some feel higher Brazil corn export prices and hot and dry US Midwest crop conditions is offering support. Bears feel prices will continue to be under pressure as US harvest will start mid September, US exports lag US goals and Crude is back below $80.
Wheat futures are higher. There is no clear picture of Russian market, there was no fresh news on the Ukraine insurance scheme, EU quality is clearly an issue, and the S Hemisphere shows little sign of any needed rain. There is little specific fresh news, and the trade now awaits next week’s Stats Canada crop update with the trade expecting an all-wheat crop of just above 30 mmt (USDA currently 33 mmt) and a durum crop of just over 4 mmt.
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