Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Prices have swung higher across most of the Ag space this AM in 2-sided trade. A wave of speculative buying or perhaps demand interest from China likely driving the higher trade. Soybean oil deliveries remain heavy at 661 contracts while corn jumped to 325. Energy prices are mixed with spot WTI crude oil down $.70 per barrel near $68.80 having traded to a fresh 4-month low. Spot RBOB is up $.02 per gallon with HO $.06 higher. US rainfall the past 24 hours was limited to the far WCB and N. Midwest. Rainfall in the first week of July will continue to favor the N. Midwest as the high pressure ridge keeps much of the nation’s midsection warm and humid. Week 2 of the outlook has the ridge shifting west leaving much above normal temperatures limited to the far WCB and plain states. Hot/dry conditions persist across Spain and France while central Europe will see cooler temperatures with scattered rain. Argentina remains cool and dry. Scattered rains for the interior south of Brazil where temperature remain below normal. Warm and dry for the central and northern growing regions. The US $$$ and US stock indices are moderately higher.
Corn:
Sept-26 is up $.05 ½ at $4.22 ¼ while Dec-26 is up $.06 at $4.42. June 1st stocks at 5.295 bil bu would imply March through May usage at a record 3.738 bil bu up 6.5% from YA. The tighter stocks should work to raise the price floor however with 2026 acres still above 95 mil. will likely limit the upside unless US weather becomes more threatening or demand from China emerges. Today’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production rose to 322 mil. gallons LW, up from 320 mil. the previous week. After today’s close corn usage for ethanol production from May-26 is expected to reach 453 mil bu up from 444 mil bu in May-25.
Soybeans:
Aug-26 soybeans are up $.12 at $11.36 ¼ while Nov-26 beans are $.11 higher at $11.55. Aug-26 meal is up $2.00 at $305.90 while Aug-26 oil is down another 80 points at 66.13, however still holding within yesterday’s range. Resistance for Aug-26 beans is at its June high of $11.45. Nov-26 is approaching its June high of $11.60 ¼ with next resistance at $11.67 ¼. Crush margins fell another $.16 to $2.72 bu. after plunging $.34 yesterday. US FOB offers at the Gulf are slightly below Brazilian offers Aug-26 forward. Yesterday’s USDA reports were neutral for the soybean complex with both stocks and acres close to expectations. Bean oil continues to be pressured by speculative selling, heavy deliveries and record canola acres in Canada. Also weighing on bean oil was EIA data that showed usage to produce green diesel fell 4.6% in April to 1.224 bil lbs. well behind the pace to reach the USDA forecast of 14.550 bil lbs. for the 25/26 MY. To reach this forecast, usage May through Sept will need to average 1.442 bil lbs. Census crush after today’s close is expected to show 215 mil bu of soybeans were processed in May-26, vs. 203.7 mil. in May-25. Oil stocks are expected to have grown to 2.217 bil lbs. vs. 1.876 bil YA.
Wheat:
Prices are $.07-$.10 higher. CGO Sept-26 is up $.09 ¼ at $5.98 ½, KC Sept-26 is $.08 higher at $6.33 ¼ while MIAX Sept is up $.07 ½ at $6.14. 100-day MA resistance for CGO Sept-26 is at $6.17 ¼, for KC resistance is at $6.48. Inside trade so far for MIAX. The lower wheat stocks combined with acres well below expectations has lifted the price floor for wheat. June 1st stocks 920 mil. bu. were a 6-year high however 15 mil. below expectations. All wheat acres at 42.74 mil. were down 1.035 mil. vs, expectations of rising 85k acres. Winter wheat acres were slashed another 890k to 31.52 mil., harvested acres were cut 805k to 21.21 mil. Winter acres are a 6-year low. Using the updated acreage data and the state-by-state yield forecasts from earlier this month implied winter production would drop another 28 mil. bu. to 1.002 bil. Most of the acreage cuts coming from HRW producing areas with OK down 300k acres, TX down 200k, KS down 100k and MT down 50k. Spring wheat acres were cut 25k vs. expectations for an 80k increase. At 9.39 mil. acres they are the lowest in 56 years.
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