Written Commentary
CORN
Prices finished $.06-$.07 higher, closing at session highs. Spreads rebounded nicely off recent lows. Dec-24 closed into new highs for the week stopping just short of the September high at $4.16. Next resistance is at the July high at $4.26 ½. Remnants of Hurricane Francine brought heavy rains to the northern Delta and southern portions of the Midwest in the past 24 hours. The storm will slide east bringing 1-3” rainfall totals to the SE over the next 48 hours. Otherwise little moisture across the nation’s midsection over the next 5 days. US corn acres in drought rose 5% last week to 18%, the highest in 5 months, however well below the 54% from YA. Since 1990 the USDA increased their Ave. corn yield in Aug. and Sept, (like this year) 10 times. In the 5 of those years final yields were above the Sept forecast, with 5 years below. Yesterday’s NASS data showed the average number of ears per acres across Midwest states was actually down 1.5% from Sept-23. Implied ear weights however were a record high at .359 lbs. per ear. Record ear weights were estimated for Iowa, IN, and SD. Yesterday’s USDA data brought little change to the global landscape. Stocks/use among the 4 major exporters is expected to rise to 9.8%, up from 9.1% in 2023/24 and the highest in 5 years if realized.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex closed mostly lower with beans down $.04-$.05, meal was mixed while being bear spread, and oil was 70-80 lower. Nov-24 failed to pierce its 50 day MA resistance for the 2nd time this month, however held key support at this week’s low at $9.95 ½. Oct-24 oil closed back below $.40 and into new lows for the month. Next support is at contract low at 38.05. Support for Oct-24 meal is at its 50 day MA at $313.40. Spot board crush margins fell another $.05 ½ to $1.29, a 3 month low while bean oil PV slipped to 38.3% a 6 week low. NOPA crush on Monday is expected to slip to 171.3 mil. bu. in Aug-24 down from 182.9 mil. in July however well above the 161.5 mil. bu. in Aug-23. Better prospects for rain across the northern plains towards the end week 1 of the outlook. Above too much above normal temperatures across the Midwest thru the end of Sept will continue to drive corn and soybean crops quickly toward maturity. Hot/dry will continue for much of WC growing regions of Brazil likely slowing early soybean plantings. World Weather expects rainfall will pick up in coverage and intensity in October. The USDA announced the sale of 100k mt (3.65 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China. US soybean acres in drought rose 7% last week to 26%, the highest in 6 months, however well below the 48% from YA. Since 1990 the USDA increased their Ave. bean yield in Aug. while lowering in Sept. (assuming this year lower with production down 3 mil. and acres unchanged) only 4 times. In all 4 years final yields were below the Sept forecast. Yesterday’s NASS data showed average pods counts across Midwest states less than 1% from Sept-23. No significant changes to the global soybean balance sheets in yesterday’s WASDE data. Stocks/use among major exporters still expected to rise to a 6 year high at 22.7%.
WHEAT
Prices held strong into the close, finishing near session highs. All 3 classes were up $.12-$16 closing into multi week highs. Additional war premium was injected into the market as tensions in the Black Sea heat up following Russia’s drone attack on a Ukrainian vessel transporting wheat to Egypt yesterday. Today Russia’s envoy to the UN warned that it western nations allow Ukraine to use their weapons to strike deeper into Russia that puts them in “direct war with Russia.” US winter wheat areas in drought increased 5% LW to 57% the highest in the past 52 weeks complicating wheat plantings in the southern plains. In an effort to stabilize domestic wheat prices, India’s Govt. lowered the amount of wheat that can be held by millers and traders from 3,000 mt to 2,000 mt. Russia increased their wheat export tax 5.6% to 956.90 roubles/mt for the period ending Sept. 24th. Declining global stocks and renewed war tensions in the Black Sea should keep wheat prices well supported.
Charts provided by USDA Charts.
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