Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.04 higher closing near session highs. Dec-24 futures reached a fresh 5 week high with next resistance at its July high at $4.26 ½. Despite the higher trade spreads were a bit softer. Corn used in the production of ethanol in July at 473.5 mil. bu. was up 6% from June, however at the low end of expectations. Aug-24 usage will need to reach 462 mil. in order to reach USDA usage forecast, up from 442 mil. YA. Crop ratings held steady at 65% G/E with overall conditions still he highest since 2018. IMO current ratings suggest a US yield of 182.8 bpa just below the Aug-24 USDA estimate of 183.1 bpa. Census exports in July at 207 mil. bu. were 9 mil. below June-24 however well above the 94 mil. from July-23. They were also 19 mil. above the weekly inspections data. Aug-24 exports will need to reach 161 mil. bu. in order to reach the USDA 23/24 export forecast of 2.250 bil. With inspection in Aug-24 already reaching 170 mil. bu. Allendale is forecasting US corn production at 15.097 bil. bu. with an average yield of 182.53 bpa. The Linn Group’s est. is at 15.029 bil. with Ave. yield of 182.25 bpa. Both just below the USDA est. of 15.147 bil. and yield of 183.1.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans up $.09-$.10, meal was $8-$9 higher, while oil was down 70-80. Beans and meal made new highs late with oil making new lows late. Inside trade for Nov-24 beans with next resistance at the 50 day MA at $10.34 ½. Oct-24 meal reached a 4 week high with next resistance at the August high at $333.40. Oct-24 oil closed below yesterday’s low with next support at 39.38. Talk of additional Chinese purchases helped fuel the recent rebound however no announced sales from the USDA this AM. No major change for global weather. The only rain of significance over the past 24 hours has been in central TX and across the Gulf coast. Outside of scattered moisture across the Great Lakes region there is very little rainfall expected for the Midwest over the next 7 days. Both corn and soybean crops will be pushed toward maturity while compromising optimal yield potential. Bean conditions slipped 2% to 65% G/E in line with expectations. While ratings slipped to their lowest of the season they are still the highest since 2020. Current ratings suggest an average yield of 53.7 bpa, vs. the USDA Aug-24 est. of 53.2 bpa. 13% of the crop is dropping leaves same as YA and 5-year Ave. of 10%. Census exports in July at 55 mil. bu. were 6 mil. above June-24 and 6 mil. above the weekly inspections data. Aug-24 exports will need to reach 64 mil. bu. to reach the USDA 23/24 export forecast of 1.70 bil. Inspections thru Aug. 30th have already reached 63 mi. Allendale is forecasting US bean production at 4.601 bil. bu. with an average yield of 53.33 bpa. The Linn Group’s est. is at 4.585 bil. with Ave. yield of 53.15 bpa. Both very near the USDA est. of 4.589 bil. and yield of 53.2. AgRural is forecasting Brazilian soybean acres in 24/25 to reach 46.4 mil. HA (114.7 mil. acres) up less than 1% from YA and the slowest rate of growth since 2006/07. The USDA is been using 47.3 mil. HA (116.9 mil. acres).
WHEAT
Prices surged late closing $.16-$.18 higher in KC and MGEX while Chicago lagged just a touch up $.13-$.15. Dec-24 Chicago surged to its highest level in nearly 2 months. Next major resistance is the July high at $6.15 ¼. Dec-24 KC stopped just shy of its mid-July high at $5.95 ¼. Dec-24 MGEX surged above its 50 day MA and August high. Next resistance is the July high at $6.54 ¾. Spring wheat harvest advanced 19% to 70% completed vs. 68% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 70%. Winter wheat plantings are at 2% in line with the 5-year Ave. Census exports in July at 72.5 mil. bu. were well above the 55 mil. from June and up 13% from July-23. In the first 2 months of the 24/25 MY exports at 128 mil. are up 19% from YA. Given declining production prospects in EU I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 10-20 mil. bu. increase to the current USDA export forecast of 825 mil. bu
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