Ag Market View for Sept 20.22


Soybeans traded higher. Soybean futures were supported by tech short covering after USDA dropped US soybean crop rating to 55 pct G/E vs 58 ly. 3 pct of the crop is harvested. Most look for USDA to raise US soybean crop in October and could lower US exports. Brazil is starting to plant their 2023 crop with planted acres est near 105.5 million vs US 87.5. Some now est Brazil 2023 soybean crop near a record 160 .0 mmt vs USDA 149.0 and 126.0 last year. Grain markets may have been supported by escalating Black Sea conflict. Russia will offer referendums in four Russian controlled Oblasts in east Ukraine to officially annex those territories. This could increase tension and reduce vessel owners and insurance companies willingness to go into that region. There is talk that Argentina Central Banks may restrict access to the 200:1 peso-USD exchange rate. Some feel though soybeans sold may not be restricted. 50 Argentina soybean cargoes have been sold since the program was announced which has lowered demand for US soybeans.

harvesting crops


Corn futures are also seeing positive tech action. US farmer is not selling and demand pipeline is getting thin before harvest. USDA est US corn harvest at 7 pct with crop rated 52 pct G/E vs 59 ly. SA and Ukraine corn export prices are still below US. Brazil will soon start planting their 2023 crop with USDA est the crop near 126.0 mmt vs 116.0 ly. Some question USDA est of Ukraine corn crop at 31.5 mmt vs 42.1 ly. There was talk that China corn crop could be as low as 240 mmt vs USDA 274 and total demand near 295. Some feel given tight old crop World corn stocks to use ratio there is little room for Ukraine corn exports. There is also concern that given the Ukraine war and higher cost and record low corn prices Ukraine farmers may decide to plant less crops in 2023. Wheat futures rallied sharply on the Russia and Ukraine news which may have helped CZ trade back over 6.80 and test 6.93. One crop watcher lowered his US 2022 corn crop yield to 169.0. Using  80.8 harvested acres that suggest a crop near 13,655 or down 289 mil bu from USDA October est. Without changes in demand, that would drop US 2022/23 corn carryout to only 930 mil bu.


For much of the day the wheat market was searching for reasons for the big turnaround in futures. Some feel wheat saw short covering with little resting sell orders after Russia said they will quickly try to annex 4 territories of occupied Ukraine. Ukraine continues to make strides in recovering Russian held territory in the NE. Some feel given tight old World non Russia wheat exporters stocks to use ratio there is little room for lower Russia wheat exports. Some also feel that WZ is trying to make a head and shoulders bottom which could trigger additional short covering. WZ rallied from a low near 8.25 through Sep 15 high near 8,84 and ended near 8.96. Next resistance is 9.14 and 9.42. Some also note that dryness in US south plains could slow plantings there. USDA estimated that 21 pct of the crop is planted vs 17 average and 20 last year. One group this week estimated US 2023 US wheat crop at 1,924 mil bu vs 1,752 this year. They  estimated US 2023 all wheat acres at 47.9 vs 46,3 this past year. Same group estimated 2023 HRW crop at 721 mil bu vs 571 in 2022 and 749 in 2021.

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