Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2025
July 2, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 lower today rejecting higher trade overnight. Dec-24 experienced an outside day down as spreads also weakened. Longer term support is at the 50 day MA at $4.06 ½. Agricultural prices were pressured by improved weather forecasts in SA along with sharply lower energy prices. Crop ratings held steady at 64% G/E in line with expectations. Conditions improved in 8 states, declined in 3 while holding steady in 7. Harvest advanced only 9% to 30%, below expectations and just below YA pace of 31%, however above the 5-year Ave. of 27%. EU corn imports as of Oct. 6th have reached 5.43 mmt, up 9.5% from YA. US census corn exports for Aug-24 reached 203 mil. bu., more than double to 100 mil. bu. shipped in Aug-23.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex today with beans $.18 lower, meal was down only $1-$2 while oil closed 120-150 lower largely in sympathy with weaker energy prices. Nov-24 beans traded to a fresh 2 week low however held support its 50 day MA at $10.10 ½. Dec-24 oil fell below its 100 day MA intraday however managed to close above the technical support level. Dec-24 meal rebounded off its 50 day MA support at $319.90. Much of South America is forecast to receive beneficial moisture over the next week to 10 days with the late arrival of monsoonal rains. Outside of lite showers in the Great Lakes region, much of the nation’s corn and soybean belt will be dry the next week to 10 days. The USDA announced the sale of 166k mt (6 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China. Crop conditions slipped 1% to 63% G/E in line with expectations. Ratings increased in 6 states, fell in 9 while holding steady in 3. 90% of the crop is dropping leaves vs. 91% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 85%. Harvest advanced 19% to 47% complete, vs. 37% YA and 5-year Ave. of 34%. This year’s harvest is the fastest in 7 years. EU soybean imports as of Oct. 6th have reached 3.27 mmt, up 3.5% from YA. Meal imports at 4.63 mmt are up 8%. US census exports for Aug-24 reached 63 mil. bu. equaling that of YA.
WHEAT
Prices were steady to $.02 higher across all 3 classes. Wheat prices helding in much better than other areas in the Ag. space as tensions in the Black Sea region remain elevated. Late yesterday Russia targeted another Ukrainian vessel loaded with grain with a ballistic missile, the 2nd in the past 2 days. The 2nd attack killed 1 person and injured 5 others. Winter wheat plantings advanced 12% to 51% complete vs. YA and the 5-year Ave. of 52%. Despite recent attacks Ukraine’s wheat exports since July 1st have reached 6.5 mmt, up 80% from YA. Ukrainian farmers have planted 2.88 mil. HA’s of winter grains which represents just over 55% of the expected acres. Nearly all of the acres planted have been winter wheat with 2.62 mil. HA sowed of the intended 4.5 mil. HA intended. Jordan has reportedly passed on their 120k mt wheat tender. Algeria reportedly bought between 360k – 390k mt of milling wheat from Black Sea origins at around $262/mt CF. EU soft wheat exports as of Oct. 6th at 6.35 mmt are down 29% from YA.
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