Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2023
November 28, 2023
SOYBEANS
Soybeans found early support from talk of higher demand. Higher soyoil futures also offered support. Lower US Dollar may have also supported soybean futures. Some argue that normal Global 2023 crop weather could send futures lower especially during SA harvest. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 800-1,600 mt vs 2,335 last week. Some feel China could be a buyer of US soybeans. There appears to be a need but there has been no new daily announcements this week. Brazil export premiums are lower on lack of new China buying.
CORN
Corn futures ended slightly lower. Markets appear to lack a defined new direction. Corn futures may be stuck between higher domestic basis and lower river basis. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 350-1,000 mt vs 408 last week. Weekly US ethanol production was up 1.6 pct from last week and down 6.6 pct from last year. Stocks were up 2 pct from last week and up 12 pct from last year. Ethanol is almost 40
pct of total US demand for corn. Matif dipped slightly lower. Earlier reports of imported corn for delivery against Matif may turn out to be correct. Black Sea corn is no longer quoted with the reported shut-off date for in-bound vessels moving to Ukraine now just 10 days away. Reports suggest Putin may want to use the corridor as a lever at the G-20 meeting this takes place Nov, 15-16. Tech signals are unclear as prices continue to trade sideways.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ and KWZ ended higher. MWZ ended unchanged. WZ had an outside day. Open interest continues to increase. Wheat option calls open interest also high and may be hedging against Ukraine export corridor being closed. US baker is estimated at 45 pct Q1 2023 coverage and 15 pct Q2 coverage. US flour demand remains strong. Wheat basis firmer due to river situation and high barge freight impacting interior rail market demand. These challenges could linger into Q1 of 2023. US RR strike still looms. Futures may be driven by geopolitical rhetoric primarily with war and weather in wheat countries. US HRW regions remain dry. Argentine is dry. Australia is wet.
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