Ag Market View for Nov 7.24

CORN

Prices recovered late to close $.01-$.02 higher in choppy 2 sided trade.  Spreads were slightly lower with today being the first day of the Goldman roll.  Dec-24 traded to its highest level in a month with next resistance at the early October high at $4.34 ¼. With yesterday’s speculative traders reporting buying nearly 20k contracts of corn flipping the money manager position to net long for the first time in 15 months.  Exports at 112 mil. bu. (109 mil. – 24/25 MY, 3 – 25/26) were above expectations.  YTD commitments at 1.040 bil. are up 48% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 1.4%.  Current commitments represent 48% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 41%.  Shipments are up 32%.  Noted buyers last week were Mexico 55 mil. old crop and 3 mil. 25/26, unknown – 27 mil. and Japan – 12 mil.  In addition, the USDA announced a fresh sale of 120k mt (4.7 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer.  Commitments to Mexico at just over 470 mil. bu. are a record high for the end of Oct.  Commitments to unknown at just over 250 mil. bu. are at the highest level in at least a decade.  There has been some speculation China may have also been boosting US corn imports ahead of the potential for Trump tariffs. 

SOYBEANS

The soybean complex finished higher across the board with beans up $.20-$.23, meal is steady to $2 higher, while oil soared $.02 lbs.  Spreads however were steady to weaker across the complex.  A late surge enabled Jan-25 beans to close at its highest level in nearly a month while also closing above its 50 day MA resistance at $10.24 ½.  Dec-24 meal traded to a new high for the week then rolled over.  Support is at the contract low at $293.10.  Dec-24 oil surged to fresh 4 month high with next resistance at the July high of 48.89.  Spot board crush margins improved $.01 to $1.73 bu. with bean oil PV jumping to a 15 month high at 44.7%.  Light rains are forecast for Argentina thru early next week before turning dryer in week 2 of the outlook.  Brazil is expected to see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next few weeks keeping production prospects favorable.  Bean exports at 75 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and bring YTD commitments to 1.040 bil. up 17% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%.  Commitments represent 56% of the USDA forecast, below the historical average of 60%.  China/unknown combined to buy 50 mil. bu. bringing commitments to 678 mil. bu. now well above YA at 629 mil. Soybean meal sales at 399k tons were in line with expectations.  Soybean oil sales were huge at 114k mt.  YTD commitments at 234k mt are more than 8 times higher than YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 8%.  This week’s sales represent 42% of the export forecast for the entire 2024/25 MY!  The recent surge in Palm oil prices to 2 year highs has enabled US bean oil to grab a bigger chunk of the global vegetable oil trade.  

WHEAT

Prices were $.02-$.05 lower across all 3 classes today and continue to be the weakling of the Ag. space.  Chicago Dec-24 failed to break out of 2 week range of roughly $5.60-$5.80 stalling at its 50 day MA.  Similar story for KC Dec-24.  Dec-24 MGEX remains stuck between $5.95-$6.20.  The US Southern plains are forecast to receive another 1-3” of rainfall thru this weekend, helping further ease drought stress.  Russia’s Prime Minister stated their country has harvested 128 mmt of grain so far in 2024 without stating what percentage of the crop had been harvested.  Just yesterday their Ag. Minister felt their total grain harvest would be only 130 mmt, down from earlier projections of 150 mmt.  The Ag. Minister is forecasting wheat production at 83 mmt, a touch above the current USDA forecast of 82 mmt.  Exports at 14 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and bring YTD sales to 510 mil. up 18% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%.  Commitments represent 62% of the USDA forecast, slightly below the historical average of 63%. 

All charts provided by QST.

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