Ag Market View for Nov 4.24

CORN

Prices were steady to $.02 higher today as spreads firmed.  Dec-24 traded above last week’s high before stalling at $4.20.  The USDA announced the sale of 150k mt (6 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico and 120k mt (4.7 mil.) to an unknown buyer.  Export inspections at 31 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations.  YTD inspections at 292 mil. are up 34% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 1.4%.  Mexico was the only noted buyer with 20 mil. bu.  Last week money managers were net buyers of nearly 54k contract of corn, reducing their short position to just under 18k contracts, their smallest short position in 15 months.  Brazil’s 1st corn crop plantings are nearly 75% planted.  Historically since 1990, the USDA has raised production in November 20 times (59%) including the past 3 years, while lowering production 14 years. The largest changes were back in 1993 when production was cut 459 mil. bu. and the following year of 1994 when production rose 408 mil. bu.

SOYBEANS

The soybean complex was mixed today with beans up $.03-$.05 while meal was up $2-$4 and oil down 50-75.  Spreads were mixed with beans and meal higher, while oil spreads weakened.  It was an inside trading session for Jan-25 beans as prices were not able to pierce Friday’s high at $10.08 ¾.  Overnight Dec-24 meal held above Friday’s contract low setting up today’s rebound, however was not able to close back above $300.  After trading up to a fresh 3 ½ month high overnight, Dec-24 oil pulled back to close moderately lower, however well off session lows.  Spot board crush margins slipped $.03 to $1.73 bu. while bean oil PV pulled back to 43.2%.  In South America the heaviest rains this weekend were in Southern Brazil and central growing regions of Argentina.  A good mix of rain and sunshine over the next week to 10 days will continue to support favorable crop development.  The USDA announced the sale of 132k mt (4.8 mil. bu.) of beans to an unknown buyer.  Export inspections at 79 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  YTD inspections at 470 mil. are up 3.5% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%.  China took 52 mil. bu. Last week money managers were net sellers across the soybean complex unloading 12.6k bean contracts, just over 3k of oil and 43,550 contracts of meal.  This was the largest amount of soybean meal contracts ever sold in 1 week by MM’s.  AgRural reports Brazilian soybean plantings advanced 18% to 54% planted, now ahead of the YA pace of 51%.    Historically since 1990, the USDA has raised production in November 19 times (56%), lower production 14 times while holding steady in 2019. The largest increase was in 2012 when production rose 111 mil. bu. with the largest reduction coming in 2020 when production was cut 98 mil. bu. 

WHEAT

Prices were mostly higher today with KC and MGEX up $.03-$.05 while Chicago was mixed as most contracts closed within $.01 of unchanged.  Spreads were firmer across all 3 classes.  Areas of western KS that have so far missed out on rainfall should have several chances by the end of this week.  Export inspections at only 7 mil. bu. were below expectations and below the 15 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast.  YTD inspections at 358 mil. are up 35% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%.  IKAR is reporting Russia’s spot export price for wheat at the end of LW was $232/mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week and below the suggested floor price of $245-$250 for Nov/Dec.  Russia’s offer for Egypt’s GASC tender was $265/mt FOB with Ukraine being the cheapest at $263/mt FOB.  No sale announced just yet.  SovEcon reports Russia exported 1.2 mmt of grain LW, of which 94% was wheat.  This was just below the previous week’s grain exports of 1.3 mmt.  MM’s were net sellers across all 3 classes LW extending their combined short position to the largest in 5 weeks at just over 56k contracts. 

All charts provided by QST.

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