Ag Market View for Nov 25.24

CORN

Prices were $.01-$.03 lower today however spreads continue to carve out new highs.  Dec-24/Mch-25 traded into $.08 ¼ its highest level in 15 months.  Spot Dec-24 remains stuck between its 50 day MA support at $4.18 ½ and the November high near $4.35.  Export inspections at 36 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  Last week’s inspections were revised up by 2 mil. bring YTD inspections to 395 mil. up 37% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 1%.  Mexico was the only noted taker with 16 mil. bu.  In addition the USDA announced the sale of 454k mt (18 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico.  Most of the corn, 14.5 mil. bu., were for the 24/25 MY with the balance for 25/26 MY.  Last week money managers were net buyers of nearly 5k contracts of corn, extending their long position to 115k, the largest since Feb-23.  Algeria is seeking 240k mt of SA feed corn for Dec-24 shipment in a tender that expires tomorrow.  IKAR raised their Russian grain production forecast .5 mmt to 125 mmt, while Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister maintains their forecast at 130 mmt.  The Deputy PM expects they will still be able to export between 55-60 mmt of grain in the 24/25 MY, down from 72 mmt YA.  Strong demand for US corn continues to form a good floor of support above recent lows.  The lack of a weather problem in SA limits the upside. 

SOYBEANS

The soybean complex was mixed with beans $.02-$.03 higher, meal $3.50-$4.50 higher, while oil was down 55 points.  Soybeans continue to draw support from indications China booked between 8-10 cargoes of US beans on Friday for early Feb-25 shipment.  These were likely booked as optional origin and could be shifted to SA if the incoming Trump Administration quickly slaps big tariffs on Chinese imports.  Support for Jan-25 remains near $9.75 with next major resistance not until its 50 day MA at $10.18 ¾.  Dec-24 meal spiked to a 2 week high today, likely on short covering.  Next key resistance is the November high at $303 with support at its contract low at $285.30.  Dec-24 oil plunged to a 2 month low, likely as speculative traders continue to shed market length.  Next support is the Sept low at 38.64.  Spot board crush margins were steady at $1.14 bu. however bean oil PV slipped to a 5 week low at 41.2%.  Scattered rains did fall across dryer areas of Argentina this weekend with additional amounts this week.  Southern growing areas of Brazil were dry over the weekend and will likely remain that way thru mid-week.  Rains will then begin to spread over the area Thursday thru the following weekend.  Central and northern growing regions of Brazil will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine thru the first week of December.  Export inspections at 77 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  Last week’s inspections were revised up by nearly 4 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 723 mil. up 12% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%.  China took 45 mil. bu.  Last week MM’s were net sellers across the soybean complex selling over 36k meal, 19k oil and just over 13k soybeans.  Their net long position in bean oil is down to 56k contracts.  Their net short position in soybeans is back to 68k contracts and 64k contracts in meal.  The meal short position is the largest since Feb-2020.  AgRural estimates Brazil soybean plantings advanced 6% LW to 86% complete, well above the 74% pace from YA. 

WHEAT

Prices were $.05-$.09 lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago and KC the downside leaders.  Despite to early sell-off Chicago Dec-24 was able to hold above its November low at $5.28.  The Dec-24 Chicago wheat/corn spread traded down to $1.06 in early trade, it smallest difference in 8 months.  The best rains in months fell across Eastern Ukraine and SW Russia over the weekend providing some relief for drought stressed winter crops ahead of dormancy.  While tensions in the Black Sea region remain high, so far it has not impacted either countries ability to export grain.  Export inspections at 13 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations however still below the 15 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 825 mil. bu.  YTD inspections at 392 mil. are up 31% from YA, vs. the USDA of up 17%.   Last week MM’s were net sellers across all 3 classes of wheat selling over 6k Chicago, 4k KC and just over 7.5k MGEX.  The MM short position in MGEX futures has pushed out to just over 30k contracts, within 1k of the record short position from just over a year ago.  SovEcon lowered their Russian wheat export forecast 1.8 mmt to 44.1 mmt, well below the USDA est. of 48 mmt.  Algeria and Bangladesh are both tendering for 50k mt of wheat.

All charts provided by QST.

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