Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
CORN
Prices finished slightly lower for the day, while slightly higher for the week. Spreads were also little changed however held recent strength. Resistance for Dec-24 remains at the Nov-24 high at $4.34 ¾ with support at its 50 day MA of $4.18 ¼. Favorable South American weather along with uncertainty over US/China relations and biofuel policies, continue to limit upside potential in the agricultural space. The BAGE reports Argentine corn plantings advanced less than 1% the past week to nearly 40% as farmers shift their attention to soybean plantings. France’s corn harvest has reached 82%, up 11% for the week. A South Korean Feed group has reportedly purchased 68k mt of feed corn at $237/mt CF from either SA, US or South Africa. This afternoon media outlets are reporting Pres. elect Trump will nominate former GA Senator Kelly Loeffler for the USDA Ag. Secretary. COF on Nov. 1st were 100% of YA, in line with expectations. Cattle placements at 105% of YA were slightly above expectations at 104%, while marketings also at 105% of YA were in line with expectations.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans closing $.05-$.07 higher, however nearby spreads weakened. Although meal rebounded $2-$3, nearby spreads widened out to new lows. Bean oil prices recovered to close only 40 lower. The early session low in Dec-24 matched its Oct-24 low at 41.36. Jan-25 beans again held support above its contract low at $9.73 ½, however new lows everywhere else. Nov-25 beans dipped below $10 for the first time before recovering. Spot board crush margins slipped another $.07 today closing at $1.12 ½ bu. establishing a fresh 5 month low. Bean oil PV slipped to 41.9%, matching a 1 month low. Dec-24 meal continues to hover just above its contract low of $285.30 with long term support at the Aug-2020 low near $280 ton. Much of Brazil will see a good mix of rain and sunshine into early December keeping production prospects elevated. Dry pockets that have developed in WC Argentina are forecast to receive beneficial rains late this weekend into the early half of next week. The USDA announced the sale of 198k mt (7.2 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyer. The BAGE reports Argentine soybean plantings advanced 16% in the past week to 36% while holding their acreage est. unchanged at 18.6 mil. HA. While still early in the growing season, so far SA crop prospects are off to a good start. In addition with the potential for a strong La Nina weather pattern seemingly low, the odds of record yields are trending higher. If all 3, (Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay) were able to match their previous record yields, combined SA production would swell to 241.5 mmt, up from the current USDA est. of 231 mmt and up nearly 14% from last years combined record production of 212 mmt.
WHEAT
: Prices were steady to $.04 lower in unexciting trade. Chicago was the downside leader today however all 3 finished with moderate gains for the week. A cooler/dryer weather pattern has emerged across the US midsection pushing winter crops towards dormancy. In Australia rains over the next week will favor the SE while dryer conditions in the west will favor wheat harvest. Russia’s Ag. Ministry raised their wheat export tax over 12% to 3,020 roubles/mt for the period ending Dec. 4th. The BAGE reported Argentina wheat harvest advanced 12% to 29% complete while holding production unchanged at 18.6 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 17.5 mmt. Strong wheat yields coming out of W. Australia suggests higher production forecasts may be forthcoming. ABIOVE last forecast in Sept-24 at 31.8 mmt was already up 23% over YA, however just below the USDA forecast 32 mmt. Some of the higher private est. floating around are in the 33-34 mmt range.
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