Ag Market View for Nov 15.24

SOYBEANS

The soybean complex was higher across the board however both beans and oil settled well off session highs.  Beans were up $.08-$.11, meal was $1-$2 higher while oil was 80-90 higher, near the midpoint of the day’s range.  It was an inside trade for Jan-25 beans with perhaps a bit of disappointment as it closed back below $10 per bu.  Dec-24 meal set a new contract low before rebounding.  Dec-24 oil rejected trade back above $.46 lb.  Spot board crush margins did rebound $.05 closing at $1.37 ½ per bu., however were down sharply for the week.  Bean oil PV rebounded to 43.9%.  Dryer conditions in Rio Grande do Sul in Southern Brazil this week will see more frequent shower activity the 2^nd half of November.  Conditions remain favorable across central and northern growing areas of Brazil.  Bean exports at 52 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and bring YTD commitments to 1.097 bil. up 6% from YA vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 8%.  China/unknown combined to buy just over 31 mil. bu. bringing commitments to 709 mil. bu. back below YA at 762 mil.  As expected the USDA lowered their export forecast 25 mil. bu. last Friday.  Soybean meal sales at 302k tons were in line with expectations.  YTD commitments are up 5% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 8%.  Soybean oil sales at 16.5k mt were in line with expectations.  YTD commitments at 250k mt are more than 8 times higher than YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of down 3%.  NOPA crush at 199.96 mil. bu. was a record high for any month and above expectations.  NOPA data suggests census crush of just over 210 mil. bu.  If realized crush in the first 2 months of the 2024/25 MY would have reached 398 mil. bu., up 5.7% over YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 5,4%.  Bean oil stocks barely rose, at 1.069 bil. lbs. were below expectations of 1.090 bil. lbs, suggesting a strong domestic usage