Ag Market View for Nov 14.24

SOYBEANS

The soybean complex was sharply lower across the board with beans down $.18-$.20, meal was $4-$5 lower while bean oil was down 75-85 erasing the higher trade from overnight.  Bean spreads weakened while both product spreads firmed a touch.  Jan-25 beans finally broke below $10 in an outside day down reversal action.  Friday’s bullish USDA report is a distant memory.  New contract low for Dec-24 meal with next support near $280, the low from 2020.  Dec-24 oil traded 1 tick below LW’s low of 44.34 before bouncing a touch at the close.  Forecasts in South America remain favorable.  Good rains continue to fall across central and northern growing areas of Brazil this week.  Dryer conditions in the south and into Argentina is enabling planters to roll.  We could see some dry pockets show up in Argentina, something that the market will closely monitor as we get into the 2^nd half of Nov.  The USDA announced the sale of 176k mt (6.4 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyer.  Conab’s revised production forecast for Brazil at 166.1 mmt was a mere .1 mmt above last month and just below the USDA forecast of 169 mmt.  Yesterday afternoon the RGE raised their production range for Argentine soybeans 53-53.5 mmt on a slightly higher acreage forecast.  The USDA held their est. at 51 mmt last Friday.  US soybean area in drought fell another 6% to 57%, down from 73% only 2 weeks ago.  NOPA crush due out tomorrow is expected to show NOPA members processed nearly 197 mil. bu. in Oct-24, a record high for the month.  Bean oil stocks are expected to increase just over 2% to 1.066 bil. lbs. and if realized would represent the first MOM increase in 7 months.  Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 35-80 mil. bu. for beans, 175-500k tons of meal and 5-40k tons of oil.