Ag Market View for Nov 12.24

  CORN

Prices were $.01½-$.03 lower today as spreads continue to firm.  Dec-24/Mch-25 traded into $.11 ½ the highest in 4 ½ months.  Strong demand and limited farmer selling is forcing spreads to tighten to keep the pipeline full.  US rains this week will favor the ECB with another system impacting the Southern plains late this weekend into early next week.  While I’d expect US drought readings to ease further in the Midwest and winter wheat growing areas, the northern plains will likely see drought conditions expand.  Export inspections at 31 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  YTD inspections at 324 mil. are up 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 1.4%.  Mexico was the only noted buyer with nearly 16 mil. bu.  Still surprised the USDA made no change to their export forecast of 2.325 bil. bu. last Friday.  I look for this forecast to work higher over time.  The USDA also announced the sale of 110k mt (4.4 mil. bu.) to Mexico.  Algeria is seeking up to 240k mt of SA feed corn for late Dec-24 shipment.  I look for US corn harvest to have reached 95% as of Sunday.  EU 24/25 corn imports as of Nov. 10th have reached 7.1 mmt, up 8.2% from YA.       

QST corn futures chart 11.12.24

SOYBEANS

The soybean complex was lower across the board today with beans down $.12-$.14, meal was $1-$2 lower while bean oil was down 180-190.  Bean spreads were firmer while spreads for both products weakened.  Jan-25 beans rejected trade above its 100 day MA both Friday and Monday.  Prices were able to hold above the $10.00 level.  Dec-24 meal established a new contract low today, trading to the lowest level since Aug-2020.  Concern that Indonesia may slow its move to a diesel blend containing 40% biodiesel contributed to the selloff in vegetable oil prices.  Sources indicate they are considering phasing in the higher blend over the first 6 months of 2025 in order to allow palm oil production a chance to expand, rather than beginning in January.  Spot board crush margins plunged $.17 today to $1.50 bu., matching a 2 month low, while bean oil PV slipped to 44.1%.  NOPA crush from October is due out at 11 AM CST on Friday.  Rains will favor central and northern growing regions of Brazil for the next week to 10 days.  A dryer weather pattern is expected across southern Brazil and Argentina this week with better prospects for rain in week 2.  Export inspections at 84 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  Last week’s inspections were revised up 5.5 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 560 mil. up 6% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%.  China took 58 mil. bu.  As expected the USDA lowered their export forecast 25 mil. bu. to 1.825 bil.  Late yesterday the Rosario Grain Exchange suggested that following recent rains, Argentine farmers would work quickly to seed this year’s soybean crop.  Plantings were at 8% as of late last week.  EU soybean imports as of Nov 10th had reached 4.43 mmt, up 6.7% from YA.  Meal imports at 6.53 mmt are up 18%.

 

QST bean futures chart 11.12.24

WHEAT

After mixed, quiet trade overnight wheat prices plunged $.12-$.14 with all 3 classes trading to their lowest levels in 2 ½ months.  Expected improvement for the US winter crop along with a seemingly friendlier relations between US/Russian under the incoming Trump administration seem to have fueled to bearish sentiment.  No significant drought relief is expected for Western Russia, Ukraine and western Kazakhstan over the next week to 10 days.  Dec-24 Chicago premium over Dec-24 corn settled below $1.25, its lowest close in 8 months.  Export inspections at 13 mil. bu. were also in line with expectations however just below the 15 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 825 mil. bu.  YTD inspections at 371 mil. are up 35% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%.  Jordan reportedly bought 60k mt of optional origin wheat for $269/mt CF for Feb-25 shipment.  EU soft wheat exports for 24/25 at 8.34 mmt are down 30% from YA.  I look for US winter wheat ratings to improve 4% to 45% G/E. 

QST wheat futures chart 11.12.24

All charts provided by QST.

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