Written Commentary
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June 1, 2023
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower. Lack of new US soybean sales to China offered resistance. Lower equity and energy markets and higher US Dollar also triggered long liquidation. China covid lockdown could reduce their imports of soybeans, soyoil, and energies. Weekly US soybean exports were near 18.5 mil bu vs 10.1 last year. Season to date exports are 1,753 vs 2,055 ly. USDA goal is 2,115 vs 2,261 ly. Trade est that 16 pct of US soybean crop is planted vs 8 last week. SN traded below 16.00. Next support is the 100 DMA near 15.54. BON tested 20 DMA at 79.92. SMN is near 50 pct retracement near 403.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Lower equity and energy markets, higher US Dollar and 2 week US Midwest dry weather triggered long liquidation. China covid lockdown could recue their imports of corn and energies. Weekly US corn exports were near 54.8 mil bu vs 67.5 last year. Season to date exports are 1,495 vs 1,784 ly. USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 ly. Trade est that 25 pct of US corn crop is planted vs 14 last week. Some feel 50 pct of the crop could be planted by May 20 and the entire crop by June 1. For the second day CN traded below the 20 DMA near 7.93. Next support is the 50 DMA near 7.51. Market is becoming oversold. CZ also for the second day traded below to 20 DMA near 7.37. 50 DMA support is near 6.90. CZ is also becoming over sold. Some feel USDA should increase 2021/22 exports 100-200 mil bu and lower carryout to 1,250 mil bu vs USDA 1,440. Trade est carryout near 1.412.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Lower equity, energy markets and higher US Dollar triggered long liquidation. Dry US HRW and EU weather and wet US HRS weather should offer support. Weekly US wheat exports were near 8.7 mil bu vs 20.7 last year. Season to date exports are 698 vs 872 ly. USDA goal is 785 vs 992 ly. Trade est that 28 pct of US spring wheat crop is planted vs 19 last week. Trade est US winter wheat crop will be rated 28 pct G/E vs 27 last week. WN tested 11.35 before dropping to 20DMA near 10.89. KWN tested 12.00 before dropping to 20DMA near 11.50. MWN made new high near 12.32 before dropping to 12.02.
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