Ag Market View for May 4.22

SOYBEANS

Soybeans ended higher. Hopes of new US soybean sales to China once they are back from holiday supported prices. Higher US crush margins and fact Brazil may be out of the soybean market August 1 also supported prices. As expected US Fed raised interest rates 50 basis points. They will continue to use tools available to fight inflation. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-575 mt old crop and 400-1,050 new. Some feel USDA should raise US soybean exports and lower US 2021/22 carryout. Key to 2022/23 could be USDA est of 2022 crop. SN is just below the 50 DMA near 16.51 and 20 DMA near 16.68. SMN traded below 38 pct retracement near 423. Soft US basis continues to offer resistance.

CORN

Corn futures ended slightly higher. CN tested to 20 DMA before rebounding and ended near 7.94. CN tested 8.03. Higher energy market offered support. Slow US corn planting pace also is supporting prices. US 7 day Midwest weather forecast will slow plantings. Some feel 2nd week could be drier which could help plantings. That could limit the upside in prices. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 500-1,200 mt old crop and 700-1,200 new. China will return from holiday tonight. Some feel USDA should raise US corn exports and lower US 2021/22 carryout. Key to US 2022/23 balance sheet could be USDA est of 2022 crop. Weekly ethanol production was up from last week and last year. Stocks were down from last week but still above last year. As expected, US Fed raised US interest rated 50 basis points. Fed said they will continue to use their tools to fight inflation. Fact EU proposed banning Russia energy imports, removing Russia Banks from SWIFT, offering Ukraine aid to rebuild and offer EU membership to Ukraine rallied Crude. Canada March 31 oat stocks are est at 1.0 mmt vs 1.8 ly. Barley stocks are est at 1.5 mmt vs 2.8 ly.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended higher. Talk that India may ban new wheat export triggered short covering and new buying. WN ended near 10.76. Range was 10.42-10.89. WN traded back over the 50 DMA near 10.62 and the 20 DMA near 10.80. Funds were net buyers of 11,000 wheat contracts. KWN ended near 11.23. Range was10.91-11.34. KWN tested 50 DMA near 10.94. 20 DMA is near 11.38. Recent rains have improved US HRW crops. 30 day forecast is warmer and drier. MWN ended near 11.77. MWN tested 20 DMA near 11.59. Rains continue to slow US HRS plantings. Canada March 31 wheat stocks are est near 10.4 mmt vs 16.2 ly. West Canada prairie is dry. East is wet. Rail logistics continue to remain challenged…inverted rail freight in secondary market continues to roll forward.

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