Ag Market View for May 4.22


Soybeans ended higher. Hopes of new US soybean sales to China once they are back from holiday supported prices. Higher US crush margins and fact Brazil may be out of the soybean market August 1 also supported prices. As expected US Fed raised interest rates 50 basis points. They will continue to use tools available to fight inflation. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-575 mt old crop and 400-1,050 new. Some feel USDA should raise US soybean exports and lower US 2021/22 carryout. Key to 2022/23 could be USDA est of 2022 crop. SN is just below the 50 DMA near 16.51 and 20 DMA near 16.68. SMN traded below 38 pct retracement near 423. Soft US basis continues to offer resistance.


Corn futures ended slightly higher. CN tested to 20 DMA before rebounding and ended near 7.94. CN tested 8.03. Higher energy market offered support. Slow US corn planting pace also is supporting prices. US 7 day Midwest weather forecast will slow plantings. Some feel 2nd week could be drier which could help plantings. That could limit the upside in prices. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 500-1,200 mt old crop and 700-1,200 new. China will return from holiday tonight. Some feel USDA should raise US corn exports and lower US 2021/22 carryout. Key to US 2022/23 balance sheet could be USDA est of 2022 crop. Weekly ethanol production was up from last week and last year. Stocks were down from last week but still above last year. As expected, US Fed raised US interest rated 50 basis points. Fed said they will continue to use their tools to fight inflation. Fact EU proposed banning Russia energy imports, removing Russia Banks from SWIFT, offering Ukraine aid to rebuild and offer EU membership to Ukraine rallied Crude. Canada March 31 oat stocks are est at 1.0 mmt vs 1.8 ly. Barley stocks are est at 1.5 mmt vs 2.8 ly.


Wheat futures ended higher. Talk that India may ban new wheat export triggered short covering and new buying. WN ended near 10.76. Range was 10.42-10.89. WN traded back over the 50 DMA near 10.62 and the 20 DMA near 10.80. Funds were net buyers of 11,000 wheat contracts. KWN ended near 11.23. Range was10.91-11.34. KWN tested 50 DMA near 10.94. 20 DMA is near 11.38. Recent rains have improved US HRW crops. 30 day forecast is warmer and drier. MWN ended near 11.77. MWN tested 20 DMA near 11.59. Rains continue to slow US HRS plantings. Canada March 31 wheat stocks are est near 10.4 mmt vs 16.2 ly. West Canada prairie is dry. East is wet. Rail logistics continue to remain challenged…inverted rail freight in secondary market continues to roll forward.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now