Ag Market View for May 27.22
SN ended higher and gained on SX due to tight old crop World supplies and talk of increase demand for US old crop export and crush. Fact SN is over 17.00 is supportive and suggest a possible test if 18.00. US domestic soybean basis continues to firm as farmers are reluctant sellers and crushers and exporters compete for coverage. Soymeal is gaining on soyoil. Some fear slow China economy and covid lockdown especially restaurants could reduce vegoil demand. Informa estimated US 2022 soybean acres near 89.0 vs USDA 91.0 and 87.2 ly. Some feel there may be a need for less than ideal 2022 US summer weather to push prices higher. Still, bulls feel higher US exports could drop US 2021/22 soybean carryout to near 190 mil bu vs USDA 235.
Corn futures rallied today in part due to fact Putin said Russia would contribute in solving World food shortage crisis if sanctions against Russia are lifted. Russia continues to escalate the war against Ukraine. Corn is also supported by talk China may be buying US and Brazil Sep shipment corn. US domestic corn basis continues to firm as farmers are reluctant sellers and crushers and exporters compete for coverage. Informa estimated US 2022 corn aces near 90.5. This is down 1.0 from their previous estimate but up 1.0 from ly. Wet weather across US north cornbelt could reduce acres. They also increase prevent plant acres to 5.0 vs 2.0 previous. Some feel there may be a need for less than ideal 2022 US summer weather to push prices higher. Still, bulls feel higher US exports could drop US 2021/22 corn carryout to near 1,300 mil bu vs USDA 1,440. Some now estimate Brazil corn crop closer to 108 mmt vs USDA 116 and Argentina near 49 mmt vs USDA 53. This suggest SA supply could be down 8-12 mmt (315-47 mil bu) from USDA May estimate.
Wheat futures ended higher. WN gained on both KWN and MWN. Wheat futures rallied in part due to fact Putin said Russia would contribute in solving World food shortage crisis if sanctions against Russia are lifted. Russia continues to escalate the war against Ukraine. Wheat is also supported by wet US and Canada HRS weather and talk of lower EU 2022 crop. Informa est US spring wheat acres near 10.2, down 1.0 from USDA. Currently Informa estimates US 2022 wheat crop near 1,726 mil bu vs 1,646 ly. Winter wheat is est at 1,174 vs 1,277 ly They est spring crop at 481 vs 331 ly. They est spring harvested acres near 9.9 vs 10.1 ly and yield near 48.4 vs 32.6 ly. They est Durum crop at 72 mil bub vs 37 ly. WN bounced off double bottom and ended over Thursday high and back above the 20 DMA. KWN has seen 3 days of higher lows and is also back above the 20DMA. MWN has seen 3 days of higher lows and is also above the 20DMA near 12.71.
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