Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. Fact US domestic soybean basis has rallied helped futures. SN jumped over recent high near 17.20 on rumors of increase China interest for US soybeans. Last level of resistance is 17.41. SN started lower and near 16.67 on talk of increase Ukraine sunoil exports and low weekly US export sales. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 276 mt old crop and 443 new crop. Total commit is near 59.4 mmt vs 61.5 ly. USDA goal is 58.2 vs 61.5 ly. Soybean rally linked to talk of China interest in US soybean and talk C IL soybean basis is near +244 SX vs +190SX ly. USDA est Brazil soybean exports near 82.7 mmt vs 81.6 ly. China imports are est near 92.0 mmt vs 99.7 ly. Some feel Brazil may be out of the soybean export market as soon as the end of July. Some feel this could increase US exports to 65.4 mmt.
CORN
Overnight, grains were lower. Most of the drop was due to more talk that Russia may allow for Ukraine food exports. Most doubt it unless west drops Russian sanctions, Ukraine removes mines from ports and improved infrastructure. News that China economy could slow due to Covid lockdown also offered resistance. A mostly normal US Midwest 2 week weather forecast also limited new buying. Weekly US corn export sales were only 151 mt old crop and 58 new crop. Total commit is near 59.0 mmt. Commercial buying may have helped support futures. CN range was 7.57 to 7.72.. Some feel you need confirmation that Russia will not open Ukraine exports or a US weather problem to push CN closer to 8.00. C IL corn basis is near +61CN vs 35CN ly. USDA est Brazil corn exports near 44.5 mmt vs 21.0 ly and Argentina 39.0 vs 40.9 ly. USDA also est Ukraine corn exports at 23.0 vs 23.8 ly. USDA est World corn imports at 181.0 mmt vs 185.6 ly. Some feel US exports will increase Oct 1. USDA est US 2022/23 corn exports near 61.0 vs 63.5 this year. Some feel US export could increase to 72.5 mmt.
WHEAT
Wheat futures closed mixed. WN ended near 11.43 with a range of 11.15-11.60. KWN ended near 12.26 with a range of 12.06-12.49. MWN ended near 12.92 with a range of 12.56-13.00. Overnight, grains were lower. Most of the drop was due to more talk that Russia may allow for Ukraine food exports. Most doubt it unless west drops Russian sanctions, Ukraine removes mines from ports and improved infrastructure. Better US HRW weather offered resistance to KC futures. USDA dropped India wheat crop from 108.5 mmt to 99.0. US wheat export commit is near 19.4 mmt vs 25.6 ly. USDA goal is 21.9 vs 27.0 ly. USDA est World 2022/23 wheat imports at 201.2 mmt vs 196.5 this year. They est EU exports at 36.0 vs 31, Russia 39.0 vs 33.0, Ukraine 10.0 vs 19.0 and Canada 24.0 vs 15.0. Some feel USDA may be too high in exports. USDA est World exporters end stocks at 36.4 mmt vs 41.4 this year.
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