Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2025 Results
May 6, 2025
CORN
Prices were up another $.06 ½ – $.07 ½ today as spreads are mixed. Fresh 2 week high for July-25 while a 3 week high for Dec-25. Next resistance for July-25 is the 50 day MA at $4.68 ¼. Dec-25 has pushed thru its 100 day MA. AgroConsult’s is forecasting record production for Brazil’s 2nd corn crop at 112.9 mmt, well above Conab’s May forecast at only 97.9 mmt. SovEcon is forecasting Russian grain production will reach 127.6 mmt in 2025, up from 125.9 mmt YA. Ethanol production rebounded to 305 mil. gallons LW, up from 292 mil. the previous week and up 1.7% YOY.
SOYBEANS
Prices were up another $.06 ½ – $.07 ½ today as spreads are mixed. Fresh 2 week high for July-25 while a 3 week high for Dec-25. Next resistance for July-25 is the 50 day MA at $4.68 ¼. Dec-25 has pushed thru its 100 day MA. I’m sensing US weather is no longer being viewed as bearish. Seasonally cool and dreary conditions across much of the N. Midwest and Great Lakes region for another 24-48 hours. AgroConsult’s is forecasting record production for Brazil’s 2nd corn crop at 112.9 mmt, well above Conab’s May forecast at only 97.9 mmt. SovEcon is forecasting Russian grain production will reach 127.6 mmt in 2025, up from 125.9 mmt YA. Ethanol production rebounded to 305 mil. gallons LW, up from 292 mil. the previous week and up 1.7% YOY.
WHEAT
Although prices closed higher across all 3 classes, early momentum seemed to run out of steam with closing prices ranging from $.03-$.07 higher. Early strength saw July-25 contracts for both CGO and KC futures reach new highs for the month while July-25 MGEX reached a fresh 2 week high. East central areas of China are expected to see relief late this week in the form of cooler temperatures and scattered rains. SovEcon is forecasting Russia’s 2025 wheat production at 81 mmt, below YA at 82.6 mmt and below the USDA est. of 83 mmt. Argentina’s reduced rate for wheat exports at 9.5% will remain in effect thru March 31st, 2026.
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