Ag Market View for May 11.22
Soybeans ended higher on talk of inflation and talk of higher demand for US soybeans. There was talk that China may be asking for US old and new crop prices. China June and July coverage is only 25 pct. Soyoil prices are supported by record high diesel prices and talk of lower palmoil exports. China covid lockdown continues to raise concern about their economy and commodity imports. USDA may not make a lot of changes to US/World 2021/22 supply and demand report tomorrow. Still, they may be too high in US 2021/22 and 2022/23 carryout. Weekly US old crop soybean export sales are est at 100-600 mt new crop 100-600 mt.
Corn futures ended higher on talk of inflation and talk of higher demand for US corn. Russia commitment to a long war could reduce Ukraine corn exports. Brazil corn supplies are down which could add to demand for US corn. USDA may not make a lot of changes to US/World 2021/22 supply and demand report tomorrow. Still, they may be too high in US 2021/22 and 2022/23 carryout. Weekly ethanol prod was up 2 pct from last week and 1 pct from ly. Stocks were up 1 pct from last week and 24 pct from last year. Weekly US old crop corn export sales are est at 350-700 mt new crop 150-600 mt. US total corn export commit is near 58.3 mmt vs 67.8 ly. USDA goal is 63.5 vs 69.9 ly. Some could see exports as high as 68.7 due to lower Ukraine exports and lower Brazil and Argentina supplies. This week US farmers should get corn planted. Next week could see increase chances of rain which could slow plantings. CZ gained on CN on US weather worries. Some feel CN should eventually gain on CZ if funds add to longs and US export demand improves.
Wheat futures ended higher. Talk of drier US south plains weather, Dry EU, Middle east, Baltic and Argentina weather and wet east Canada prairie, ND and south Australia wet weather is adding weather premium to prices. WN ended near 11.13 with a high near 11.26. Resistance is near 11.43. KWN ended near 12.01 after testing 12.07. Resistance is near 12.59. MWN made new highs near 12.58. Fact World wheat buyers are short and US bakers are also short also limits the downside. Shorts need a good rains in dry areas to push prices lower. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 25-475 mt. HRW basis up $0.05-$0.20. Concerns on HRW production and logistic issues support basis. Limited US HRS planting with wet conditions concerning.
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