Ag Market View for Mar 3.23

SOYBEANS

The soybeans complex was mixed with soybeans and meal higher, while soybean oil was lower.  For the week the entire complex was very little changed.  Spot board crush margins for May-23 improved to $2.50, their best level in 2 months.  While the BAGE didn’t lower their current est. for Argentine soybean production from 33.5 mmt, they did indicate lower estimates were likely.  They also reported another decline in crop ratings with G/E down 1% to 2%, while poor/very poor increased 7% to 67%.  Safras & Mercado lowered their Brazilian soybean forecast 1 mmt to 152.4 mmt.  The average est. for US soybean endings stocks in next Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report is 219 mil. bu. down 6 mil. from Feb-23.  The range of est. is 200 – 250 mil.  I’m expecting a 20 mil. bu. increase to 245 mil. base on reduced exports.  The average est. for Argentina soy crop is 36.1 mmt down from 41 mmt in Feb-23.  No change is expected for the Brazilian crop, holding steady at a record 153 mmt.  World stocks expected to slip 2 mmt to 100 mmt.

FAO Food Price Index

CORN

Prices were higher with old crop finishing up $.04 – $.08, new crop was steady to $.01 higher.  For the week spot corn was down about $.10.  Still no confimation of recent corn sales to China, however rumors still persist.  Negotiations to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative have still not been scheduled.  Key production areas in Argentina will remain hot/dry for the next week to 10 days.  Longer range forecasts suggest better prospects for rain the 2nd half of March, likely to little to late to have meaning impact on corn and soybean production.  Normal to below normal moisture thru the middle of next week in central and northern Brazil will benefit soybean harvest and corn plantings.  The BAGE also lowered corn conditions with only 6% of the crop rated G/E, down from 9% LW.  Poor/VP rose 5% to 56%.  Brazil’s Ag Minister said an additional 90 firms have been approved to export corn to China this year, bringing the total number to 446.  The average est. for US corn endings stocks in next Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report is 1.299 bil. bu. up 68 mil. from Feb-23.  The range of est. is 1.137 – 1.360 bil.  No change is expected for Brazil’s crop, holding steady at a record 125 mmt.  World stocks expected to slip roughly 1.5 mmt to 293.7 mmt.  Texas was the only state I found to report corn plantings this week coming in at 5%.  Sounds like planters have started rolling across southern half of several other gulf states. 

WHEAT

Prices were higher with old crop finishing up $.04 – $.08, new crop was steady to $.01 higher.  For the week spot corn was down about $.10.  Still no confimation of recent corn sales to China, however rumors still persist.  Negotiations to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative have still not been scheduled.  Key production areas in Argentina will remain hot/dry for the next week to 10 days.  Longer range forecasts suggest better prospects for rain the 2nd half of March, likely to little to late to have meaning impact on corn and soybean production.  Normal to below normal moisture thru the middle of next week in central and northern Brazil will benefit soybean harvest and corn plantings.  The BAGE also lowered corn conditions with only 6% of the crop rated G/E, down from 9% LW.  Poor/VP rose 5% to 56%.  Brazil’s Ag Minister said an additional 90 firms have been approved to export corn to China this year, bringing the total number to 446.  The average est. for US corn endings stocks in next Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report is 1.299 bil. bu. up 68 mil. from Feb-23.  The range of est. is 1.137 – 1.360 bil.  No change is expected for Brazil’s crop, holding steady at a record 125 mmt.  World stocks expected to slip roughly 1.5 mmt to 293.7 mmt.  Texas was the only state I found to report corn plantings this week coming in at 5%.  Sounds like planters have started rolling across southern half of several other gulf states. 

See more market commentary here.

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