Ag Market View for Mar 13.23
The soybean complex was lower across the board with beans and meal making new lows on the close. Soybeans were down $.15 – $.18, soybean meal down $4 – $7, while soybean oil was down 60 – 80. There were no export announcements this AM, disappointing following demand rumors from Friday. The CFTC report showed Money managers held a record long position in soybean meal at just over 154,000 contracts as of Feb. 21st. The combined length held by MM’s in the soybean complex swelled to nearly 377,500 contracts, their largest long position since Jan-21. Today’s export inspections at 23 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 2.5% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 7%. AgRural forecasts Brazilian harvest has reached 53% as of Mch. 9th. Safras & Mercado est. harvest at 49%. Many are wondering just how low can Argentina’s production forecast go. Some saying down to 25 – 27 mmt, vs. current USDA forecast of 33 mmt.
Prices closed $.01 – $.04 lower. Traders seem to be lightening up on positions following the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks. The uncertain impact these bankruptcy’s will have on the economy, fed monetary policy, and commodities valuations have driven a risk off mentality. The Government’s decision to guarantee all deposits, even those over $250,000, seems to have calmed market volatility. Extreme heat of over 100 F in Argentina over the weekend along with no rain continue to weigh on corn and soybean production. Showers may bring modest relief by mid-week however likely to be too little to late to have a meaningful impact. Above normal rains in Central and Northern Brazil will continue to slow soybean harvest and corn plantings. There were no announced sales from the USDA this AM, disappointing follow demand rumors last Friday. Export inspections at 39 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 642 mil. are down 37% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 25%. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 2nd corn crop is 82% planted vs. 94% YA. Traders are suggesting Argentina’s corn crop could be as low as 34 – 36 mmt, vs. the current USDA forecast of 40 mmt. Heavy rains this week across gulf states will limit corn plantings.
Prices were higher across the board as traders cover shorts fearing the potential the BSGI may not be extended beyond the next 60 days. MGEX and Chicago were up $.05 – $.08, while KC was steady to $.02 higher. After today’s close the UN issued a statement saying they remain “fully committed to the Black Sea Grain export program, as well as efforts facilitate Russian food and fertilizer exports” also adding the extension of the program is crucial for worldwide food security. Export inspections at 9 mil. bu. were below expectations. YTD inspections at 584 mil. bu. are down 2% from YA vs. USDA forecast of down 3%. SovEcon est. Russian wheat sales last week at 1.0 mt, up from 770k the previous week. For the month of March they expect their exports to reach 4.2 mmt, up from 2.1 mmt. Saudi Arabia is believed to have purchased over 1.0 mmt of wheat between $315 – $323/mt CF. Tunisia is tendering for 234k of optional orgin milling wheat for late Mch-23 – May shipment. Friday’s CFTC COT report showed MM’s were short 72,000 contracts of CGO wheat, and long 16,000 of KC. The difference of 88K was the largest since April-18.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.