Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2025
July 2, 2025
CORN
Prices ranged from $.02-$.05 lower with spot July the downside leader. Spreads weakened with July/Dec slipping to a new low at ($.13 3/4). July-25 slipped to a new 8 month low with next support at $4.26 ½. Higher trade in Dec-25 was capped at its 50 day MA. US weather remains supportive for crop development. The BAGE places Argentine corn harvest at 50% complete, up 3% for the week. While suggesting yields were coming in better than expected they held their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt, vs. the USDA at 50. Exports sales at 42 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 2.631 bil. are up 26.5% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 16%. Current commitments represent 99% of the USDA forecast vs. the historical average of 94%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans down $.05-$.07 closing near session lows. Meal was steady to $1 lower while oil backed up 30-35 points. While spreads were mixed across the complex, several meal spreads did make new lows today. July beans traded to a new monthly high however stalled below the May high at $10.82 before setting back. Nov-25 stalled below its Feb. high at $10.75 ¾ before pulling back. July bean oil traded to a fresh 20 month high in early trade. New contract lows for July meal with next support at $278.50. Spot board crush margins improved $.02 to $1.56 ½ bu. with bean oil PV settling just below 49%. New crop margins jumped $.03 ½ to $2.01 with bean oil PV at 48%. Scattered showers across the NC Midwest today with excessive heat across much of the nation’s midsection this weekend. 100+ degree highs are expected to extend as far north as SD the next few days. Low to mid-90’s for much of the Central and ECB into the middle part of next week. Argentine harvest is starting to wind down with the BAGE reporting progress has reached 97%. Bean sales at 23 mil. bu. were above expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.805 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. As expected no change from the USDA in last week’s WASDE. Soybean meal sales at 174k tons were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments are up 12% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%. There were net cancellations of 1.5k tons (3.3 mil. lbs) of soybean oil sales. YTD commitments slipped to 2.319 bil. lbs. represent 89% of the revised USDA forecast of 2.60 bil. lbs.
WHEAT
Prices were $.05-$.08 lower across the 3 classes today in choppy 2 sided trade. All 3 classes traded to fresh multi-month highs before pulling back. Net drying next week in the S. Plains will support better harvest opportunities for winter wheat. Extended forecasts continue to lean toward above normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation across the Midwest for late June into early July. The BAGE report Argentine wheat planting shot up 22% LW to 60% while maintaining their production forecast at 20 mmt, up 8% YOY. Russia’s Ag. Ministry expects they will produce 90 mmt of wheat in 2025, well above the USDA forecast of 83 mmt. The Ministry expects they will export 45 mmt, consistence with the USDA forecast. Exports at 16 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 233 mil. bu. are up 17% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 1%. Commitments represent 28% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 23%. By class sales were HRS – 7.7 mil., HRW – 4.7 mil., white – 2 mil. and SRW – 1.2 mil.
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