Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2025
July 2, 2025
CORN
Price were $.02-$.06 higher today with July-25 the upside leader. With US old crop inventories tight and the Goldman roll now over, look for July-25 to gain on new crop Dec-25. US weather remains mostly favorable as much of the nation’s midsection will see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next 2 weeks. The past 24 hours showed healthy rains across E TX, the Gulf coast and S. Midwest. Pockets of heavy rain also noted across the N. Midwest and W. NE, an area still impacted by severe drought. The market has been treating the strong US demand as old news as future demand shifts to SA. Dec-25 has been grinding sideway in a $4.35-$4.50 range looking forward to the month end stocks/acreage data. Next resistance for July-25 is this month’s high at $4.51. The BAGE places Argentina corn harvest at 47% while holding their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 50 mmt.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply mixed across the complex. Beans were up $.25-$.28, oil was locked limit up $.03 lb. all the way out to Sept-26, while meal was down $3 per ton. Next resistance for July-25 beans is last month’s high at $10.82 and $10.65 ½ for Nov-25. Expanded limits on Sunday night of $1.15 bu. for soybeans, $.04 ½ lb. for oil and $60 per ton for meal. Today the US EPA proposed target for biomass-based diesel rise to 5.61 bil. gallons in 2026 while growing to 5.86 bil. in 2027. Current mandates cover only 3.35 bil. gallons. US biodiesel and RD capacity has been over 6.5 bil. gallons annually for the past year. The EPA went on to state they expect to announce small refinery waiver policy before finalizing proposed blending requirements. The BAGE placed soybean harvest in Argentina at 93%, up 4% for the week while increasing production .3 mmt to 50.3. The USDA is stuck at 49 mmt. NOPA crush on Monday is expected to show NOPA members processed nearly 194 mil. bu. in May, which if realized would be a record high for the month. Estimates range from 188.5-196 mil. bu. Bean oil stocks are expected to fall 5% from April to 1.450 bil. lbs. and if realized would be off nearly 16% from the 1.724 bil. lbs in May-25. Although the USDA lowered their old crop bean oil usage for biofuels 200 mil. lbs. yesterday to 12.90 bil. lbs. they kept 25/26 usage unchanged at a record 13.90 bil. lbs.
WHEAT
Prices surged $.16-$.18 across the 3 classes drawing support from the surging bean and oil prices along with heavy rains slowing winter wheat harvest. July-25 Chicago closed back above its 50 day MA with next resistance at the 100 day at $5.61. The rally in July-25 KC stopped just short of its 50 day MA at $5.42 ¾. The BAGE places Argentine plantings at 38.5% advancing 15% for the week. Drought conditions across EC China will see relief with several opportunities for rain in coming weeks. Tunisia reportedly bought 100k mt of soft wheat at an average cost of $244.50/mt CF for July/Aug shipment. Stocks/use ratio among global exporters slipped to 15.6% in June down from 16.4% in May, comparable with YA.
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