Ag Market View for June 1.22
Soybean ended higher. SN ended near 16.90. USDA finally announced US soybean sales to China. USDA estimated that 66 pct of US soybean crop was planted vs 83 last year. 30 million intended acres are still yet to be planted. ND is only 23 pct planted. Some fear final acres could drop 1.0-3.0 million acres. NOAA US 30 day Midwest forecast calls for normal rains and below normal temps far north and above far south. Some look for US 2021/22 soybean carryout to be near 190 vs USDA 235. Trade could also see US 2022 soybean crop near 4,685 mil bu vs USDA 4,640. Higher yield could offset lower acres. Will see if USDA drops Argentina soybean crop 2 mmt and Brazil 3 mmt. Talk that Biden administration could increase 2021 fuel blending credits.
Corn futures ended sharply lower for the second straight day. Some feel sharp losses in corn may be due to talk EU would like Russia to open a corridor for Ukraine corn exports. No word from Russia yet but previous attempts and Russia has said that they would if sanctions are lifted. U.N. Secretary General said on Wednesday he was hopeful of easing the food crisis prompted by the war in Ukraine, but cautioned that any agreement to unblock shipments of commodities such as grain was still some way off. Some feel managed funds are also liquidating long corn positions due to a mostly normal US Midwest 30 day weather outlook. USDA first 2022 corn crop rating will be next Monday. Next USDA month supply and demand report will be June 10. USDA will also revise US 2022 crop acreage and June 1 stocks on June 30. Some look for US 2021/22 corn carryout to remain near USDA 1,440. They may wait for confirmation of higher exports to increase demand. Trade could also see US 2022 corn crop near 14,660 mil bu vs USDA 14,460. Higher yield could offset lower acres. Will see if USDA drops Argentina corn crop 4 mmt and Brazil 9 mmt.
Wheat futures ended sharply lower. WN ended near 10.41 versus recent high near 12.84. KWN ended near 11.27 versus recent high near 13.79. MWN ended near 11.97 versus recent high near 14.12. Another massive risk off day for wheat. Some feel sharp losses in wheat may be due to talk EU would like Russia to open a corridor for Ukraine wheat exports. No word from Russia yet but previous attempts and Russia has said that they would if sanctions are lifted. Wheat may be lower due to continued slow demand for US wheat export and start of US 2022 HRW harvest. Some look for US 2021/22 wheat carryout to remain near USDA 655. Trade could also see US 2022 wheat crop near USDA 1,729. May be too early to lower US HRW crop especially after recent rains and lower US spring wheat acres despite delays. USDA could also keep World 2021/22 wheat carryout near 279 mmt and 2022/23 267. Trade fears could see limited harvest pressure on winter wheat basis , with ample space available in country, reduced production, and rail logistics still a question mark. USDA estimated US spring wheat plantings 72 pct vs 97 ly. There is still 3.0 mil acres yet to be planted.
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